Support in the Democratic field in the 2020 presidential election is widely divided among 22 candidates. At this point, it is unclear in their poll how much of the support for the bottom candidates may shift to the top candidates as the primaries unfold. However, other polls show strong indications that voters may shift their allegiances with time.
The only candidate at this point who is beating Trump within the margin of errors in the Fox News poll is Vice President Joe Biden. Other candidates are beating Trump, but within the margin of error. In Emerson polls, which are a much more reliable indicator, Biden is leading Trump by 11 points, Sanders by nine, O’Rourke by four, Warren by only three, Harris by two, and Buttigieg is in a dead heat. With a 4.7 percent margin of error, that means both Biden and Sanders would beat Trump in the general election if it were held today.
— Duly Projected (@DProjected) May 14, 2019
Additionally, respondents in the Emerson poll indicates that the majority are willing to change their votes should their chosen candidate not get the nomination. Biden and Sanders supporters tend to be more loyal to their candidate, but others are not as married to their stance at this early stage of the game.
‘A majority of Democratic primary voters, 56%, indicate there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for another candidate, whereas 44% say they will definitely vote for the candidate they are currently supporting. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling notes that “Biden and Sanders have more loyal supporters, as 52% and 54% of their voters say they will definitely vote for the top two candidates, while only 33% of Harris voters, 27% of Buttigieg and 20% of Warren voters plan to definitely stick with their preferred candidate.”’
‘A dream ticket’: Black lawmakers pitch Biden-Harris to beat Trump
— Jon Cooper (@joncoopertweets) May 13, 2019
The election is likely to be decided by who turns out to vote. Among younger voters, Sanders has a significant lead, while Biden carries the over 30 crowd. The older the demographic, the more support Biden has.
‘A strength for Sanders throughout this early stage of the nominating process has been the support of younger voters. Sanders currently leads Biden among 18-29 year old voters, by an impressive 41% to 11%. However, Sanders’ support weakens with age: 30-49 year olds only break for Sanders 29% to 26%, as compared to 50-64 year olds who break for Biden 42% to 19%. Among those over 65, Biden has a strong lead, beating Sanders 52% to 7%.’
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) May 15, 2019
Featured image via Flickr by Gage Skidmore under a Creative Commons license