The Democratic candidate that starts out in the lead traditionally falls back as the public turns to another candidate. Governor Howard Dean (D-VT) dropped like a rock in his primary race against former vice president Al Gore in 2004. The press took a hoarse attempt to reach his room’s 3,000 supporters and killed off his campaign. President Jimmy Carter started out at 62 percent in his re-election bid against President Ronald Reagan’s 33 percent. Yet, Reagan won with 51 percent to 41 percent. What does that mean for Democrats today?
A new poll, the Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll, showed former vice president Joe Biden has been losing traction in a recent sharp drop of 11 percentage points. Now, the poll shows him and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) neck-and-neck with each holding 24 percent in the ever-important state of Iowa, according to The Talking Points Memo (TPM).
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pet Buttigieg claimed the next spot with a 14 percent place. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) had 12 percent, and Senator Kamala Harris held 10 percent.
Warren’s favorability rating won the top spot with Sanders close behind at 71 percent. Principal pollster Jane Loria’s news release said:
‘Good news for Elizabeth Warren: her favourability exceeds that of any other candidate in the race and her name recognition is near-universal.’
Loria continued, noting that the “candidates are all pretty tightly clustered:”
‘In some states, we see a large spread between the front-runners and the so-called second-tier in the excitement barometer, but in Iowa the candidates are all pretty tightly clustered. When we ask respondents to identify the five candidates they’re most excited about, 54% say Warren, followed by Biden (53%), then Harris (53%), Sanders (49%), and Buttigieg (46%).’
Iowa holds more influence in the primary elections, because it will be the first state to hold its primary. After that, a close group of states has moved their vote date up so much that there will be little space between them, dissipating their energy and influence.
After the Iowa caucuses, which will be held next January, the numbers in the next states changed significantly. Biden beat Sanders in New Hampshire 36 percent to 18 percent. In South Carolina, Biden pulled in 46 percent of the interviewees’ votes, and Sanders only captured 15 percent.