By almost all appearances, President Donald Trump faces an uphill battle if he hopes to get re-elected come 2020. There’s now another new poll out, this time from Emerson College, which has leading Democratic presidential primary contenders former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) ahead of Trump by major margins in hypothetical general election match-ups. Both finished a full ten percent ahead of the widely unpopular incumbent, with 55 percent of the support to his 45 percent.
Every other Democratic contender among the current top five also beat Trump in Emerson College’s polling. Massachusetts’ U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren finished six percent ahead with 53 percent of the support to Trump’s 47 percent, while both South Bend, Indiana’s Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California’s U.S. Senator Kamala Harris registered 52 percent of the support while Trump only had 48 percent. Every one of these margins passes the poll’s margin of error of just under three percent.
The new numbers come just a short time before the first debates of the Democratic presidential primary season, which will be taking place across two nights this week in Florida. In Emerson College’s concurrent polling of the field, Biden, Sanders, and Warren continue on in their already established positions as the leading three candidates. Warren will be featured alone among those three on the first night of the debates, with Sanders and Biden on the second. Overall, 34 percent of those surveyed said they were with Barack Obama’s former second-in-command, 27 percent said they supported Sanders, and 14 percent were with Warren, known for leading charges like the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The closest candidates behind them were Harris and Buttigieg, with seven and six percent of the support, respectively.
As has also been previously established, Sanders leads among younger voters while Biden leads among older people, with the divide growing as one proceeds upwards. Sanders has the stated support of 38 percent of 18-29 year olds, while Biden only has 21 percent — Warren has more than him, with 22 percent. By the time the 50-64 years old age bracket rolls around, Biden has 39 percent of the support, Sanders has 24 percent, and the field proceeds familiarly from there.
President Trump has maintained an air of confidence heading into 2020, but these numbers undercut that position. Some similar figures recently leaked out of his campaign, which those behind the scenes eventually claimed only represented a worst case scenario of voter turnout. As late-night television host Stephen Colbert pointed out — it’s true, the worst case scenario for the Trump team is that voters actually turn out.
Issues on the table heading into 2020 center on the consistently belligerent behavior from Trump. At present, he’s facing steep criticism for his administration’s treatment of detained asylum seekers, but Trump is refusing to budge, claiming that he’s being great to them. The lawyers who recently had to pressure authorities to hospitalize four ill toddlers would no doubt tell a different story, as would the many people — children and adults — being kept for extended periods in conditions without basic resources while a Trump administration lawyer argues in court that they shouldn’t be obligated to provide these supplies in the first place.
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