The presidential race for 2020 is well underway, with a lot of Democrats hoping to see Trump booted from the White House in November. After a rough month for the president considering his “go back to where you came from” tweets that the majority of the country viewed as racist, more disturbing news and photos from detention centers at the border, and clear indications that Trump committed impeachable offenses of obstruction of justice during the Mueller investigation, Trump should be down even farther than he is. At this point, only two candidates are likely to beat him.
Both Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) have seen a rise in their poll numbers following the first round of Democratic debates. However, the only two candidates still polling higher than Trump are former Vice President Joe Biden and current Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Fox News is rather optimistic about Trump’s chances.
‘Having the most voters in nearly two decades feeling positive about the economy and 52 percent approving of his job on the economy should position President Trump well to win re-election.
‘However, the exact same number, 33 percent, think economic conditions will get better whether Trump gets re-elected or a Democrat is elected. A touch more think the economy will get worse if Trump wins (39 percent) than if a Democrat wins (36 percent).’
Likely Democratic voters indicate two very important criteria ahead of the midterms: they want a candidate who can beat Trump and a candidate who can address the growing wealth gap in an economic system that benefits the rich and devalues the working class poor and middle class. Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy will likely be a talking point in 2020 as well as the fact that the gains in the economy are simply an extension of the Obama years.
‘“When the economy is good, incumbents typically have the wind at their back,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
‘“The president has an obvious target group — the 10 percent who approve of his handling of the economy, but aren’t voting for him.”’
Other polls are showing similar results, but this should in no way lull voters into a false sense of security. Just like in 2016, it’s important to remember that polls show a percentage of all likely voters, but presidential elections aren’t decided by a majority of voters. Instead, they’re based on electoral college votes won in each state.
For a better understanding of how to read the polls, click the link in the tweet below:
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) July 25, 2019