Bank Of America Makes Recession Announcement That Will Scare You

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Since Trump became president, many Americans have been wondering when his financial policies, created to benefit the rich, and the trade war will start to take a toll on poor, working, and middle class Americans.

On Monday, CNBC released a report showing the latest data pointing to a 30 percent chance of a recession in the next year.

Bank of America global economist Ethan Harris said in a note to clients on Monday:

‘Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20% but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance.’

According to CNBC:

‘Uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade war and a global economic slowdown have caused interest rates to tumble and weighed on the major stock averages in recent weeks.’

Although last month’s job report showed a strong consumer, business investment policy is low due to new tariffs and fiscal policy uncertainty.

Harris said economic indicators are “flashing yellow,” signaling that a recession is coming.

CNBC reported:

‘For one, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below the yield on the 3-month, inverting part of the yield curve.’

‘This inversion although a recession indicator, is not as worrisome as an inversion of the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, which has yet to occur’

In addition, Harris said there are three typical indicators that have predicted various recessions: auto sales, industrial production and aggregate hours worked. All three are currently at levels reached right before previous recessions.

According to CNBC:

‘Harris said the “bright spot” of the economy is that initial jobless claims remain at low levels.’

Featured image is a screenshot from Twitter