The Trump 2020 campaign may have a still-increasing number of obstacles to victory. In the for decades consistently “red” state of Arizona, President Donald Trump is statistically tied with two out of three leading Democratic presidential primary candidates. In a recent OH Predictive poll, former Vice President Joe Biden managed 45 percent of the support to only 43 percent for Trump, while Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren had one percent less than Trump, with 43 percent of the support to Trump’s 44 percent.
Each of those differing margins falls within the poll’s margin of error of four percent. Arizona hasn’t gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton won the state’s electoral votes in 1996, indicating just how far off the rails Trump has gone. He’s even struggling to hold onto “red” states.
There have been signs already that Arizonan voters have been straying from the Republican line as led by Donald Trump. Last year in the midterm elections, they elected their first Democratic Senator since the 1980s, pushing Kyrsten Sinema to victory over former fighter pilot and Republican Martha McSally. McSally still ended up in the Senate anyway when Arizona Governor Doug Ducey appointed her to fill out some of the term that John McCain was serving when he died. There’s a special election this fall to fill the last two years of that term — and the same pollster that found Arizona in play for leading Democrats found Democratic Senate candidate (and former astronaut) Mark Kelly leading McSally. He had a significant lead, with 46 percent of the support to McSally’s just 41 percent, although a key 13 percent said they were undecided.
As these developments have been piling up, Trump has only been falling further behind. In a spring poll, OH Predictive found that Trump led every Democratic presidential candidate by a significant margin among Arizona voters. At the time, shortly after Biden announced his candidacy, Trump had 49 percent of the support to his 44 percent.
He’s still out ahead of other leading Democratic presidential candidates, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He managed a full ten percent lead over him, with 44 percent of the support to the Senator’s just 34 percent. No other Democratic presidential candidate has been significantly breaking into two digit levels of support so far.
A significant low in Trump’s approval rating has helped spark his downturn. Overall, some 47 percent of Arizonans approve of the overall job that Trump is doing in office. However, only 38 percent of Arizonan independents say they approve of the job Trump is doing, which is roughly in line with recent overall national numbers. Among just independents in Arizona, Trump is losing against all five leading Democratic presidential candidates, including Biden, Warren, Sanders, California Senator Kamala Harris, and South Bend, Indiana’s Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
On the national level, Trump definitely seems to be feeling the heat. Just this week, he’s proudly touted himself as the “second coming of God” and the “King of Israel” and the “chosen one” as if more than offering some kind of “joke,” he’s reaching desperately for some kind of pillar of egomania to hold onto as his actions come back to haunt him and sink his campaign.
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