Polls are only a snapshot in time, but they do take the country’s pulse. That has value, just as knowing a person’s pulse can be useful. Otherwise, why would those in the medical profession do it every time they see a person? Here is the latest poll showing some very dramatic changes.
Former vice president Joe Biden’s number fell like a rock in the latest Monmouth University Poll. The survey indicated that he dropped below 20 percent for the first time — to only 19 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.
The last time the national poll was taken in June, Biden held 32 percent of the vote.
Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) each have taken 20 percent of the vote. That meant the poll showed all three of them at a statistical dead heart.
Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute Patrick Murray said that this latest poll indicated the 2020 presidential race for the nomination of the Democratic ticket has entered a new phase:
‘The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile. Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden.’
Senator Kama Harris (D-CA) came in at a distant fourth place, holding only eight percentage points. That number has remained consistently steady from the June survey.
Mayor of South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) has lost momentum, carrying four percentage points as does Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ). Four more candidates for the Democratic candidacy hold the bottom rung coming in at over one percent: Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary and former mayor of San Antonio Julian Castro (D), former Representative Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), author Marianne Williamson, and former tech executive Andrew Yang.
In this new phase, it appeared that Democratic voters were more interested in a leftist candidate with high name recognition. This has moved them away from the more moderate Joe Biden.
Interestingly, Biden has lost Democratic support from those who self-identify as moderate or conservative. That number fell from 40 percent of voters to 22 percent in the new survey.
Among this group of moderate and conservative Democratic interviewees, Sanders’ support increased from 10 percent to a full 20 percent within this two-month period. For Warren, two months ago she only had six percent of this group. In the new poll, she was holding 16 percent.
Overall, the two senators increased their support. Warren added five percentage points while Sanders added six points. Biden saw his favorabilities decline from 74 percent to 66 percent.
The Monmouth University Poll had a relatively small sampling of 298 registered voters identifying as Democrats or Democratic-leaning. The survey was conducted from August 16 through 20, 2019. The margin of error was 5.7 +/- percentage points, which is greater than in most polls and reflective of the sampling size.
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