Ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, the electorate is continuing to shift dramatically. Now, the prominent English/Spanish news provider Univision has come out with a poll showing that even the traditionally deeply red state of Texas may be in play come 2020. Although the state’s vote hasn’t gone to a Democratic presidential candidate in over 40 years, according to the Univision poll results, Democratic presidential candidates have an about five percent leading margin over Trump. “The advantage would be 47% to 42% in favor of the Democrats,” the publication shares, noting that these numbers place those leaning a particular direction behind the respective candidates while still leaving a bloc of 11 percent of the voters as completely undecided.
Although that portion of voters who say they’re undecided and didn’t even specify a way that they’re leaning could certainly prove decisive, Democratic presidential candidates have a broad apparent base of support all the same, and it even holds essentially no matter who’s on the ballot. A full 69 percent of the Hispanics surveyed as part of the Univision polling said they’d support a Democrat in 2020, while just 19 percent said they’d support Trump. It takes a whole lot more than a simple statistical error to account for that massive gulf.
Of course, there’s still the question of who will actually end up as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2020. Throughout most polls of the field, a few names consistently stick out as maintaining leading bases of support. These “top tier” candidates include former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) They’ll be duking it out on a this time in Houston debate stage this week for the third time (and counting), but in the meantime, according to Univision’s polling, about 22 percent of Hispanics are behind Biden, 20 percent support Sanders, 11 percent back Warren — and about 12 percent support former Obama administration official Julian Castro, who often ends up towards the bottom of the pack in polls of the overall electorate.
Notably enough, a dramatic surge in support that California Senator Kamala Harris got after the first round of Democratic presidential primary debates this year has now completely evaporated. Before the debate, she was at seven percent of the support, afterwards, her base spiked to a full 23 percent of the support — and now she’s back down to just eight percent of the support of those surveyed.
In specific match-ups against Trump, at least a half dozen Democratic presidential candidates came out on top, although some of the leading margins were definitely smaller than others. Against Biden, Trump lost by four percent, while against Sanders, his losing margin jumped to six percent. Castro had a three percent lead while Warren (and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker) were out ahead by two percent.
This is far from the first occasion in which Trump has found trouble in poll numbers. Despite his consolidation of support in the Republican Party to the point of a number of states cancelling their primary elections, on average, he continues to lose to leading Democrats like Biden and Sanders when pitted against them in polling.
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