As the 2020 presidential race continues to heat up, there’s a new poll out that has a dose of bad news coming out of left field for President Donald Trump. According to a Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll conducted this month, if former First Lady Michelle Obama were to enter the Democratic presidential primary, she’d instantly become the frontrunner at least in the state of New Hampshire, which traditionally earns a spotlight thanks to voting before many other states. Although she’s insisted she won’t run, the numbers still show just how ready voters are for a platform that’s in line with what Barack Obama led for his eight years in office — in other words, the opposite of the Trump agenda.
If Obama were to enter the race, she’d have the support of an estimated 26 percent of New Hampshire voters, and each one of the current three frontrunners would lose ground to her. Currently those frontrunners — including former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) — are basically tied in the state when factoring in margins of error.
When pitted against Obama, Warren and Biden each earned 20 percent of the support compared to the 25 and 24 percent support they respectively earned without her. Meanwhile, Sanders has 22 percent of the support in the poll of the field as is, and with the introduction of the former First Lady, his estimated base of support would shrink to just 15 percent of voters. Consistently, on both the state and national levels across the country, those three candidates have been far out ahead of almost everyone else.
Overall, Biden still maintains at least a semblance of a lead, sitting about 6 percent ahead of Warren in the latest RealClearPolitics average of relevant 2020 polls. He has an average of 29.4 percent of the support, while Warren has 23.4, all as of this Tuesday afternoon. Sanders, meanwhile, maintains about 15.6 percent of the support, a position he’s maintained for some time. The next closest candidates are South Bend, Indiana’s Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California’s Senator Kamala Harris, who both have 5.2 percent of the support in the average — a big jump down from those first three.
All of the leading Democratic candidates will be gathering for the latest debate this Tuesday night, which this time will be moderated by CNN and The New York Times. A full dozen candidates will be on stage, which while a lot, is a step down from earlier debates that were split over two nights and featured a total of twenty candidates. There have been a few debate breakout moments, but there are still months to go before the first ballots are cast.
Meanwhile, Trump keeps holding onto the bulk of the support of the Republican Party, although some have been trying to take it away. Three candidates have announced primary election challenges against him, but there’s been no indication, via poll numbers or otherwise, that they’ll come close to being able to actually topple him. Some states have even moved to cancel their Republican presidential primary elections altogether.