Many people have been waiting in anticipation to see what happens with the Trump impeachment inquiry and just what the end result will be. Some think it is probable that Mr. Trump will end up resigning because he doesn’t want to go down in history as the third president to be impeached or even the first president to be removed from office.
There has also been speculation as to what the stock market would do if Trump resigned. Raymond James of one Wall Street investment firm predicts that the stock market would do just fine and rally around President Mike Pence in the event that should happen.
James wrote in a Wednesday night report:
‘After the initial shock, we think the market rallies as Pence is a predictable, traditional, conservative choice.’
According to CNN Business:
‘The firm stressed that Trump resigning is a “low probability event” because he’s known for not backing down from fights and would not want to validate allegations of wrongdoing.’
Former Trump Organization vice president Barbara Res told CNN’s Brian Stelter that her “gut” instinct is that Trump will resign. Res said:
‘It would be very, very, very bad for him to be impeached. I don’t know that he’ll be found guilty but I don’t know that he wants to be impeached. I think that’s what this panic is about. And my gut (instinct) is that he’ll leave office, he’ll resign. Or make some kind of deal, even, depending on what comes out.’
Predictit, a prediction platform that lets traders bet on political outcomes, said the chance of Trump quitting during his first term is roughly 20 percent.
Chris Meekins of the Raymond James group gave rationale for doing the research, saying that it had been a frequent topic of conversations around Washington D.C. Meekins said:
‘Independently, different people associated with Trump’s orbit brought this idea up unsolicited.’
According to CNN though:
‘It’s impossible to say with any certainty how the stock market would react to a Trump resignation. In the long run, market performance isn’t driven by politics. It’s determined by how fast the economy and corporate profits are growing.’
Experts did though predict that the market would crumble if Trump was elected. CNN reported:
‘That turned out to be true, for all of a few hours. Stock futures initially plummeted on the night of the 2016 election, but after the shock wore off investors loudly cheered the business-friendly parts of Trump’s agenda, especially tax cuts and deregulation. The Dow spiked from just above 18,000 on Election Day to 26,000 by early 2018.’
Back in September, Trump claimed that the markets would “crash” if he was impeached. In a tweet, he said:
‘Do you think it was luck that got us to the best Stock Market and Economy in our history. It wasn’t.’
If they actually did this the markets would crash. Do you think it was luck that got us to the best Stock Market and Economy in our history. It wasn’t! https://t.co/V0WGVWEWTN
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 26, 2019
However, Trump’s recent policies make his claims even more false. His less business friendly economic agenda, the trade war with China, the rise of costs for businesses and consumers, and the destruction of the manufacturing industry indicate that the market is not benefitting from Trump’s presidency.
Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments said:
‘The markets can live happily with Pence, on trade in particular. Pence would get a long far better than the Chamber of Commerce and the free trade advocates. He’d shy away from tariffs.’
However, there are also plenty of reasons why Pence would detrimental to the country.
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