Donald Trump appears bent upon winning a second term in November. He has made clear that he will go to any lengths by any means to accomplish his reign of coarseness, cruelty, and crudeness. He has taken a wrecking ball to nearly every aspect of the government, but will the Democrats turn out to vote in large enough numbers to win over Trumpites?
Democrats have traditionally taken the city votes, whereas, Republicans tend to be more rural. Reuters analyzed recent polls and determined that turnout in 2020 would be a total reversal of 2016, with the Democrats more motivated. That could be a continuation of the 2018 midterm turnout, only accelerated.
Reuters checked 88,000 responses by American adults in an online poll that began in August to through December 2015. Then, it compared that data to a second poll in 2019 from August to December. The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that the “Blue Wave” keeps on rolling along gathering momentum.
Trump has a solid core of support by conservative Republicans that has been quasi-religious. These voters are rising in numbers exceeding people who disapprove of him.
A political scientist at the University of Michigan Nicholas Valentino went over some of the poll results at Reuters’ request.He noted that “Democrats are very angry:”
‘Many see this administration as an existential threat to the constitutional order. They’re standing ready to participate to try to change the course of this country.’
However, that does not cancel out the Republicans’ effort. According to the Chief Research Officer at the conservative WPA Intelligence Byron Allen, “Republicans are fired up as well.”
The co-founder of exit polling company Edison Research, Joe Lenski, consults with “dozens of Republican congressional candidates.” He said:
‘Democrats can’t just assume that if they drive up turnout in the suburbs that they’ll win. Trump can drive up turnout in small towns and rural areas to counteract that.”After the Democratic-led House of Representatives tried to remove Trump through impeachment.’
University of Florida Political Scientist Michael McDonald’s specialty is voter turnout. He said many Democrats were not voting in the primaries but that did not reflect their interest:
‘[B]ecause they don’t see a lot of distinction between these candidates. There will be much sharper interest in voting [in November].’
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was an online nationwide poll administered by an online program. Reuters conducted the long-term polls beginning in 2012. It consideed voter-age Americans’ enthusiasm for voting in the general elections.
The poll had people self-report by rating their own interest in voting on a sliding scale from one to 10 with the one’s meaning as a firm decision to not vote at all. Ten meant a firm decision to vote.
Then, the poll collected “53,394 responses in the last five months of 2015 and 35,271 responses in the same part of 2019.” Then, it sorted people by their zip codes. Next, the poll did a second sort among people according to their physical location, “regionally and nationally.”
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