There were a number of surprises in the state of Arizona’s new poll. A full 40 percent of Arizona’s voters had already voted. Former Mayor Mike Bloomberg voters preferred a different candidate. Plus, the lead was quite significant.
Forty percent of Arizona voters had voted by March 3/March 4, 2020. According to the OH Predictive Insights poll, former Vice President Joe Biden took a large lead, 30 percentage points over his primary contender Bernie Sanders among those who voted early.
The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) was conducted statewide to see how voters felt about the two primary candidates. Almost half, 45 percent, chose Biden over Sanders, 17 percent.
Chief of Research and Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights Mike Nobel said that one visit to the state was not good enough. The Phoenix-based public opinion and market research company executive commented on former Vice President Joe Biden (D) before going on to Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT):
‘Biden has a 24-point lead over his nearest opponent among those who have already cast their ballot in this election Bernie Sanders’ visit to the Grand Canyon State last week won’t be enough to dig him out of the Grand Canyon-sized hole he finds himself in just before the March 17 preference election.’
Biden leads Sanders among all ethnicities even though Sanders expected higher numbers of Hispanic voters. In Nevada, Sanders beat Biden among Hispanics with basically equal white voters. Yet, in Arizona, Biden wins over Sanders among whites by a full 25 percentage points, among non-white and non-Hispanic voters by 28 percent, and among Hispanics by over 30 percent:
‘Another key factor to keep in mind when looking at Arizona’s Democratic primary is the considerable number of voters who mail-in early ballots. In fact, 2 out of 5 voters have already cast their votes. However, this means that almost 60% of the electorate has either held off mailing in their ballots or who are waiting to vote on election day and can still change their minds on which candidate they will support and will be key targets for the Biden and Sanders campaigns.’
Among those who have already sent in their ballots and those holding their ballots, Biden seemed to have picked up momentum after his South Carolina win.
Ohio Predictive insights asked the 233 voters who have not yet voted whether they were waiting until after the two-man debate March 13th. There was a 33 percent who said yes:
‘It’s important to note that the presence of Elizabeth Warren’s and Mike Bloomberg’s names are in our poll. During sample collection and after we had finished collecting responses, Warren and Bloomberg dropped out of the race. Understanding which candidate that is still in the race will attract the drop-outs’ supporters will be a key factor in anticipating Tuesday’s result.’
Bloomberg’s supporters prefer a moderate, 69 percent to 18 percent. Warren voters prefer a candidate who is liberal/progressive:
‘More surprisingly, however, one in four Warren supporters said they would prefer a moderate candidate, indicating that Biden may be able to pick up a small but not insignificant portion of her supporters.’
OH Predictive Insights conducted this poll between March 3rd, 2020 and March 4th, 2020 among likely 2020 general election Arizona voters. It was a “blended phone poll” meaning it included cell and landline phones. The sample demographics included party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The company interviewed a random sample of 398 with a margin of error 4.91 +/- percent.
OH Predictive Insights offers polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients. OH Predictive Insights will “service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers.”
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