With the need to shelter in place, Donald Trump may have an unusual advantage over the presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden. His advantage comes from his daily televised coronavirus pandemic briefings. CNN and MSNBC have decided to pull at least part of that advantage away by limiting the president’s coverage.
Instead, they tune in then periodically pull back for a fact check. Even so, air time is air time. Former Vice President Biden has risen to the top of his party by appearing the most electable Democratic candidate.
None of the polls reflected Biden’s only contender Senator Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) decision to leave the race, because the polls were taken at earlier period.
Biden should win in Pennsylvania, because he carries the home-state advantage. Lackawanna Country’s Democratic Party Chair Christopher Patrick said, according to The Vox:
‘We call him the ‘scrappy kid from Scranton. He’s our guy.’
Thus far, Biden has taken the lead in nearly every national poll in the post 45 days. However, his advantage has fluctuated from poll to poll. The Quinnipiac University Poll from March 3 to 8 gave him an 11 percentage point lead over Trump with a low 2.8 +/- percentage point margin of error, according to Vox.
On the other hand, the April 5 to 7 Economist/YouGov Poll only gave Biden a 6 percentage point lead. The margin of error was slightly higher, but still a statistically significant margin of error, 3.1 +/-. A RealClearPolitics average gave the former vice president a 6.1 percentage point lead ahead of Trump.
There are some variables that will uniquely affect the next group of polls. First, there will be the president’s strong advantage of television time. Second, the virus itself could affect either or both men. After all, they fall into the elderly demographic. Trump is 73 years old, and Biden is 77. In addition, the president has an additional predisposition for contracting the virus, obesity.
Presidential candidates need to carry certain states rather than the popular vote to become president. Hillary Clinton carried the three-million-vote popular lead, but lost to Trump when she lost the state of Wisconsin. The longtime blue state decided to go with POTUS. After all, she took the state for granted to such an extent that she did not even visit Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, Biden faces the same problem. There is no clear-cut end to the coronavirus pandemic, so it is unclear how many votes he will carry in the ever-important Electoral College count.
In fact, that vote is still very competitive between Biden and Trump. A few battleground states will decide the election. These are Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In Florida, Biden won over his Democratic opponent by 40 percentage points. According to the polls though, Trump could virtually tie Biden for the state”s 29 Electoral College votes.
According to the University of North Florida Poll, Dr. Michael Binder said:
‘I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers. First, these are registered voters — not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics. Although this same sample of voters, when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election.’
Michigan polls showed a much closer vote, too, with the two men in a virtual tie. Biden already has Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s endorsement. Should he select her as his running mate, that might put him over the top with Michigan.
Secretary Hillary Clinton lost by just 0.7 percentage points to Trump in the 2016 presidential race. Recent polls have shown Biden taking the race by 3 percentage points. Unfortunately, the poll used to determine that poll had a 4.2 +/- percentage point margin of error.
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.