President Donald Trump has an increasingly narrow path to re-election this November as polls continue to come in of voters in battleground states around the country, including Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump won all three states in 2016 when he nabbed his narrow leading margins that gave him his electoral college victory, but now, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads in new polls that have emerged recently of voters from each one of those states. A Quinnipiac University survey of Florida voters had Biden leading 46 percent to 42 percent, while Fox News polling in Pennsylvania had Biden with 50 percent to just 42 percent for Trump. In Michigan, the same pollster found Biden leading with 49 percent of the support while Trump had 41 percent.
Biden’s leads are buoyed by leads among demographics including those which Trump won in 2016. For example, in Florida polling, Biden leads among voters over the age of 65 with a ten percent margin, although in 2016, Trump led among those voters when pitted against Hillary Clinton by a full 17 percent. That’s a remarkable 27 percent swing away from Trump. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Biden led by a full 30 percent among suburban women.
It’s worth noting — Barack Obama led in at least some polling in each one of these three particular battleground states prior to the 2012 presidential election, and he — with Joe Biden on the ticket after four years in office together — won each one of them. In Michigan, that Obama-Biden ticket almost even scored a double-digit leading margin, finishing with a 9.5 percent lead over Mitt Romney.
The new numbers are actually even somewhat better than Biden’s numbers in national level polling. On average, according to RealClearPolitics, Biden leads in national polling pitting him against Trump by 5.9 percent. Biden is generally seen favorably by more of the public than Trump, and other issues weighing on the general election match-up include the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic, which a majority of voters recently said that they thought Obama could handle better than Trump.
At least neither Obama nor Biden could be expected to suggest the ingestion of disinfectants like bleach, which Trump did this week while discussing possible treatments for the Coronavirus.
Democratic strategist Addisu Demissie commented:
‘Trump has always had a ceiling, and he’s at or below that ceiling now because any temporary rally-around-the-flag bump he got has evaporated and did not translate into new votes. We can’t forget, there are a lot of noncollege-educated middle-aged whites in some of these battlegrounds, and Trump is winning by healthy margins here, so it’s good to be circumspect. At the same time, Trump’s path to victory looks very narrow, just as it was in 2016. I think the range of outcomes here is something between Biden winning in a blowout and Trump winning a very close election.’
The consistently strong numbers for Biden definitely suggest an imminent victory for Democrats. Democratic strength on the presidential ticket could translate into boosts for Democrats in down ballot races, too. Democrats would need to capture four Senate seats in addition to their current total in order to nab that chamber’s majority — or three if the vice president, who breaks Senate ties, is a Democrat.