According to new polling released by Hart Research Associates, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden has a resounding lead over Donald Trump among voters in states across the country that have politically vulnerable incumbent Republican Senators up for re-election this year. That list of states includes Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina, and in that group of states, Biden nabbed the support of 50 percent of voters, while Trump secured the support of a meager 41 percent of voters. That margin for Biden is almost large enough to secure him against any influx of undecided voters to the Trump side.
If the great results for Biden carry over into great electoral results for the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate seats in each of those states, Democrats could retake control of the Senate, where they need to flip at least three seats to become the majority party. In the new Hart polling, Democratic Senate candidates led their incumbent Republican opponents by an about five percent margin, with 46 percent of the support for the Dems and just 41 percent for the GOP.
Trump, notably, won four out of six of the swing states in question in 2016, suggesting that his political chances have taken a truly huge hit since that election cycle. He appears to be dragging the rest of the GOP down with him. In national level polling, Biden leads Trump by an average of 4.4 percent, and one recent poll, from Monmouth University, had Biden up nationally by a full nine percent. At this point in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton also led nationally by a large margin, but her poll numbers dropped off precipitously very soon after. By May 22, 2016, Trump actually led in the RealClearPolitics average of national level polling by 0.2 percent. By the time of the general election, Hillary’s average lead was 3.2 percent.
Trump’s declining political chances could drag the political prospects down for Republicans across the board. The Cook Political Report currently calls a full four currently GOP-held seats toss-ups heading into November. The toss-ups include races in Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, and Colorado. In each one of those states, likely Democratic nominees for the general election raised more than their incumbent Republican opponents in the first quarter of 2020.
Biden has commented:
‘Here’s the simple truth: The United States of America has never been defeated when we’re together — and we’re not going to be defeated now. We can and will overcome this. Donald Trump loves to crow about what a great economy he built. This crisis has revealed what a failure Trumponomics has been. And American workers and families are paying the price.’
Here's the simple truth: The United States of America has never been defeated when we're together — and we're not going to be defeated now.
We can and will overcome this.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 8, 2020
Donald Trump loves to crow about what a great economy he built.
This crisis has revealed what a failure Trumponomics has been. And American workers and families are paying the price.
Tune in for my remarks live on @nowthisnews at 12 PM EDT.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 8, 2020
He, like other political candidates, has had to adapt to a web-focused campaign environment amidst the social distancing demands of the Coronavirus pandemic. When the pandemic began, he stepped back from plans for in-person rallies, and rallies have been on hold across the board for months. Lots of fundraising also hinges on in-person events, so there’s been lost ground to make up for on that front as well.