The American people comforted themselves with the idea that they only had to tolerate Donald Trump for 10 more months. What could go wrong? As it turned out, fate landed two powerful punches in the gut.
Trump botched the coronavirus pandemic rollout. He refused to admit that the pandemic was breathing down the nation’s neck. Then, POTUS refused to lead, because he did not want any responsibility for the fallout. He dumped the problem onto the states’ governors to manage however they could.
Having people hunker down in their bunkers aka homes showed the governors have done an excellent job. [Most] installed mandates for people to stay in their homes unless they were essential employees or getting food.
After that domino fell, another one hit Trump right where it hurt the most. Wall Street tanked, totally erasing any gains the president had made. Trump was running on a good economy, which really does not work, given that jobless rates have plummeted to Great Depression levels, 14 percent.
The latest poll Monmouth University poll discovered that former Vice President Joe Biden (D) had a strong lead against POTUS, 50 percent to 41 percent, according to CNN. Add Libertarian Party candidate into the 2020 presidential mix and the numbers drop further: Biden 47 percent, Trump 40 percent, and Amash five percent.
That lead was in line with a national average that Biden running six points in front of Trump in the national poll. The rolling average handed Biden a record-breaking win in the polls. This has not happened since 1944.
President Lyndon Johnson’s lead swung from 35 points to more than 60-points against Barry Goldwater in the first months of 1964. Jimmy Carter began with a 30-point plus leader over Ronald Reagan in 1980. By early May polls, Carter’s lead was in the single digits. Against Reagan, Carter trailed in the polls:
‘The 1964, 1980 and 2004 campaigns are of particular interest because they both had shocks to the system within a few months of the beginning of the election year. John Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963, Iranians took Americans hostage in November 1979 and the US captured Saddam Hussein in December 2003. The first two were especially volatile, while 2004 saw some change. George W. Bush’s polling edge climbed into the double digits and sometimes north of 15 points in early January 2004. By the end of April, he was trading leads with John Kerry.’
The coronavirus pandemic, hopefully a once-in-a-lifetime tragedy, should impact voters. The poll meant a lot of action in the 2020 presidential election:
‘Indeed, there does seem to be some relationship between early poll movement and how well the early polling predicts the results. In cycles with smaller than normal early movement, the average difference between the polls during those four months and the final results has been 5 points. In cycles with larger than normal early movement, the average difference between the polls during that time and the final result has been 14 points.’
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.
