The Republicans have a big problem. Sure, Donald Trump appears to shoot himself in the foot every time he opens his mouth. Plus, the number of deaths due to the coronavirus pandemic will probably kill the 100,000th American today. Yet, the GOP problem may be equally damning. For POTUS, everything is about the numbers.
The GOP faces that problem of traditionally red, red states turning away from Trump and toward the Democrats. Utah has not voted for a Democratic president since 1964, when it voted for President Lyndon B. Johnson, but that may be changing.
In the meantime, it is hard to get your mind around the effect of COVID-19, especially when people stay home. They cannot go to funerals or to weddings, graduations or baseball stadiums. So how can people get a grip on the pandemic numbers? There are cities from across the nation with approximately the same population as the 100,000 people who have died. People loved and lost these people as they suffered and slipped away in less than three months.
The cities with similar populations would be Fargo ND, Columbia MO, Lansing MI, Springfield IL, Billings MT, Boulder, CO, San Mateo CA, West Palm Beach FL, or Hartford CT. Now, imagine one of those cities totally bombed to the ground every day for three months. That is the consequence of the coronavirus pandemic — up to this point.
The GOP had more bad news when the UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 News survey came out. It had Republican Donald Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Yet, that lead was just by three percentage points, 44 for Trump to 41 percent for Biden. Those interviewed, likely voters, were also enthusiastic about a third-party candidate, eight percent, and five percent had not yet decided who would get their vote.
The issue is not that Utah is especially enthusiastic about the former vice president. The problem is that Trump is very unpopular. His lead from just last month fell two percentage points. It was Trump 46 and Biden 41 percent.
In 2016, Trump did not do well in Utah either. He took just 45.5 percent of the vote. In the meantime, the Trump base has not grown and more likely, it may have shrunk.
According to Real Clear Politic’s polling average, President Barack Obama’s Vice President Biden leads Trump by 5.5 percent nationwide.
Another issue in Utah is what the poll calls the “gender gap.” The divide between women and men in the voting booths has become a deep canyon. Men prefer Trump 51 percent to Biden’s 35 percent. Among women, Biden takes the vote 47 percent to Trump’s 37 percent:
‘If you add the 16 point lead for Trump among men, and Biden’s 10 point lead among women, you get a 24 point gender gap. ‘
Among the conservative right voters, Trump does well. He gets 93 percent of the strong Republicans’ vote, 55 percent of the moderates, and even 6 8 percent of Independent voters.
Yet, “true Independents” and political moderates favor Biden. They take him 10 points over Trump, 38 to 28 percent. The same holds true for moderates. They choose Biden to Trump 53-19 percent:
‘The survey also shows Trump trails Biden in both the 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts, which both contain significant parts of Salt Lake City and County. In CD 2, Biden leads Trump 46-42 percent. In the 4th District, Biden is ahead 43-38 percent. ‘
The poll pointed toward the youth point for much of Biden’s support:
‘If the presidential election in Utah turns out to be close in November, it will likely be due to younger voters hitting the polls. The youth vote in Utah is solidly behind Biden, while older voters lean primarily toward Trump. 18-34 year-olds back Biden 45-24 percent.
The polling results continued:
‘Voters between 35 and 44 are behind Biden 43-36 percent. Those in the 45-55 age range support Trump over Biden 53-35 percent. 55-64 year-olds are essentially split between the two, with Biden slightly ahead 47-45 percent. Elderly voters over the age of 65 back Trump 53-38 percent.’
The Utah Policy poll was conducted by Y2 Analytics. The margin of error was three percentage points. This poll was among 1099 likely Utah voters and was carried out from May 9 to May 15.
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.