Experts say that Donald Trump has no plans to leave office and turn the presidency over to the next president. After all, the president is not doing well in the polls. He was going to run on the economy, but that blew up with the coronavirus pandemic. Now, POTUS has a Depression-era economy, the pandemic, and a justified black frustration spreading across the country in protests. A poll captures the public’s temperature.
The new ABC News/Washington Post Poll shows presumed Democratic candidate and Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 10-point lead over the sitting president. Trump’s job approval is serious 45 to 53 percent for all voters. According to the poll:
‘A statistical analysis called regression finds that views of the condition of the economy are a significant independent predictor of candidate support. Holding other factors constant — including the usual heavy hitters, partisanship, ideology and race/ethnicity — having favorable economic views predicts support for Trump.’
For the core Trump voters, 69 percent are “very enthusiastic.” For those who are for Biden, though, only 34 percent do so with “strong enthusiasm.” Something to watch closely in that the poll indicates that “enthusiasm can motivate voter participation:”
‘Indeed, even while he’s lost ground overall, strong enthusiasm for Trump among registered voters who support him has gained 14 points since late March, while strong enthusiasm for Biden is up just half as much. It is, though, slightly up; in March Biden’s strong enthusiasm was the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in ABC/Post polls back 20 years.’
The ABC poll shows that Biden voters in the primaries are “less likely to say they’re certain to vote in November:”
‘There are mixed results for Biden from Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who supported Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination. They’re as likely as those who preferred Biden in the primaries to back him over Trump. But they’re slightly less likely to say they’re certain to vote in November, and much less enthusiastic about Biden.’
With over 40 million people applying for unemployment, Biden leads the president in blue states over two to one: 66 percent to 30 percent. More women and racial or other minorities fall into that group:
‘Another potential factor – given the Electoral College lesson of 2016 — is the distribution of votes across states. Biden has a vast 65-32% lead among registered voters in the so-called blue states won by Clinton that year, evidence of a Democratic overvote, meaning he’s getting more support there than he needs. In the 2016 red states, by contrast — states that were sufficient for Trump to claim the presidency even while losing the national popular vote — it’s 51-44%, Trump-Biden.’
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll interviewed people via landline and cell phones between May 25 and 28 in both English and Spanish. A random sample of 1,001 voting-age individuals participated in the poll. The statistics were broken down into divisions of 31 percent Democrats, 24 percent Republicans, and 37 percent Independents. The percentages were likely weighted. Langer Research Research Associates of New York NY designed the poll, and Abt Associates of Rockville MD ollected the data. The margin of error was +/- 3.5 percent.
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.