In the middle of a pandemic, an economic depression, and great civil unrest, the all-important presidential election of 2020 has been on a back burner at a time when the results are most crucial. No matter what is happening outside our doors, presidential and congressional campaigns are barreling on and history may be made in 2020.
Make it two high quality live phone polls this week that have Biden by double-digits. This one is 52%-41%. https://t.co/D8J1Yjde0h
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 3, 2020
In a recent poll, the apparent Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, is up by double digits over the incumbent president, Donald Trump. Trump holds the lead with white male voters, but Biden fares significantly better with white women, black Americans overall. In fact, his leads with those two demographics may be a game-changer in November.
A Monmouth University poll released on shows that:
‘Biden currently has the support of 52% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 41%. The Democrat’s lead has been slowly widening. It stood at 50% to 41% last month, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March.’
Until/unless Trump improves his standing w women, he’s going to have a hard time winning.
Latest Monmouth poll has him down 19 w women.
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) June 3, 2020
Both candidates are underwater in terms of favorability ratings, although Trump is 19 points underwater while Biden is just six. Trump’s favorability rating has fallen while his disapproval rating has inched up steadily, while Biden’s has remained steady in recent days.
‘Trump registers a negative 38% favorable to 57% unfavorable opinion, which is more negative than prior polls. The incumbent had a 40% favorable to 53% unfavorable rating in May, a 42% to 50% rating in April, a 46% to 49% rating in March, and a 44% to 53% rating in February. Biden’s rating stands at 42% favorable and 49% unfavorable, which compares with 41% to 44% in May, 41% to 42% in April, 43% to 43% in March, and 40% to 53% in February. The number of voters with no opinion of Biden increased from 8% in February to 17% in April. This has decreased to 9% in the current poll, with most of that opinion shifting into the unfavorable column.’
NATIONAL POLL: 74% say country is on wrong track, an all-time low in seven years of national Monmouth polling. Up from 60% in last month.
WRONG TRACK by PARTY:
46% REP (28% in May)
78% IND (63% in May)
92% DEM (83% in May)https://t.co/gwIUl6mCE3
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) June 2, 2020
On questions about specific issues, Americans were divided along party lines. Republicans tend to trust Trump to handle the global pandemic that has so far killed more than 100,000 Americans, while Democrats tend to trust Joe Biden. More importantly, Trump, as a sitting president, is more affected by the pandemic politically.
‘Turning to the post-pandemic recovery, just under half of the nation’s voters have either a great deal (33%) or some (14%) confidence in Trump’s ability to deal with the recovery, while 12% do not have much confidence and 40% have none at all. Just over half have either a great deal (18%) or some (36%) confidence in Biden’s ability to deal with the recovery, while 12% do not have much and 33% have none at all…More voters think that Trump’s handling of the outbreak has made it less likely (38%) rather than more likely (18%) that he will be reelected in November.’
With the new Monmouth poll factored in, Biden now leads Trump by 8.0 in the RCP average.
In '16, from the time Trump clinched the GOP nomination in May through Election Day, Clinton's biggest lead in the RCP average was 7.9. pic.twitter.com/jwN9beB9CZ
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 3, 2020
Most importantly during this time of civil unrest, Americans tend to hold more faith overall in Biden’s ability to build bridges toward improving race relations. While a number of Democrats expressed unease with Biden’s ability to handle this issue, half the country had no confidence at all in Trump’s abilities, while only 27 percent had no confidence in Biden.
‘Republicans tend to hold extreme views on both candidates’ abilities. Nearly 6 in 10 GOP voters (58%) have a great deal of confidence in Trump’s ability to handle race relations and an identical 58% have no confidence at all in Biden. On the other hand, nearly all Democrats (89%) have no confidence at all in Trump on this issue, but just 32% say they have a great deal of confidence in Biden. However, most of the remaining Democratic voters express some confidence (53%) in his ability to handle race relations. Few independents have a great deal of trust in either Trump (12%) or Biden (13%) on this issue, but they are far more likely to express no confidence at all in the incumbent (50%) versus the challenger (27%).’
Biden up about 10 points in every recent national poll. In Monmouth, notably, he's also up above 50 percent https://t.co/GtO08Wd22R
— Alex Roarty (@Alex_Roarty) June 3, 2020
Featured image via YouTube