Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading in yet another key swing state, according to a new survey released this week by Public Policy Polling. The survey of North Carolina voters reveals a four percent lead for Biden, with 49 percent of the respondents going for the former vice president and just 45 percent opting for Trump. The four percent leading margin for Biden is the largest leading margin that Public Policy Polling has found in the state for the presumptive Democratic nominee. In an April survey of voters in the same state, Biden had 48 percent of the support and Trump had 47 percent, meaning that they were statistically tied since the leading margin was well within the poll’s margin of error.
North Carolina is one of many states that Trump won in 2016 where he has seemed vulnerable heading into 2020. Currently, with the Public Policy Polling survey factored in, Biden leads by an average of 0.8 percent in North Carolina in particular, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden leads more substantially in other swing states that Trump won in 2016 like Wisconsin, where a Fox News poll released this week revealed a staggering 9 percent lead for the former vice president. On average, Biden leads in Wisconsin by 3.4 percent, also according to RealClearPolitics. Other states where Biden leads, on average, include Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
On the national level, Biden is also doing well. He currently has the largest average lead over Trump that he’s had at any point in 2020. RealClearPolitics reports that Biden leads in national level polls by an average of 7.8 percent, a number similar to his average leading margin in late 2019, around the time of Trump’s impeachment and before the main bulk of the Democratic presidential primary process, which Biden won, got underway. In a recent Monmouth University poll, Biden led against Trump on the national level by a full 11 percent. In a recent ABC News/ Washington Post poll, Biden’s lead was 10 percent. In both of those polls, he secured over 50 percent of the support, insulating his lead against the possible Trump boost of undecided voters opting for the incumbent.
Democrats are also doing well on levels other than the presidential race. In the new Public Policy Polling survey data, Democratic North Carolina Senate nominee Cal Cunningham leads incumbent Republican Thom Tillis by two percent, with 43 percent of the support compared to just 41 percent for Tillis. There are important caveats: the lead for Cunningham is within the poll’s margin of error, and a full 16 percent of respondents said that they were undecided in that particular race.
The North Carolina Senate race is one of four currently GOP-held seats that the Cook Political Report currently rates as a toss-up heading into November; the others are in Maine, Arizona, and Colorado, where Susan Collins, Martha McSally, and Cory Gardner, respectively, are all struggling to hang onto their seats.
Polls in each one of these races suggest that Democrats are on their ways to victories. For example, Arizona Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly leads incumbent Republican McSally by an average of almost ten percent, according to RealClearPolitics.