New Weekend Poll Results Show U.S. Senate Turning Bright Blue

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Not only can President Donald Trump definitely not count on securing re-election this November, the Republican majority in the Senate also seems in jeopardy. A new Public Policy Polling survey that was apparently commissioned by the left-wing advocacy group Emily’s List reveals that incumbent Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst is apparently actually running behind her Democratic challenger. In the poll results, Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Theresa Greenfield secured 45 percent of the support, while Ernst secured just 43 percent, although there’s an important caveat that 12 percent of respondents said that they were undecided. Still — even in Iowa, the GOP is vulnerable.

In the same set of new polling data from the state, President Donald Trump led presumptive Democratic presidential nominee by a meager 1 percent, with 48 percent of the support for Trump and 47 percent for Biden. In 2016, Trump won the state by a margin of almost 10 percent, so these poll results represent an apparently pretty dramatic shift away from the president.

In Iowa, the new Public Policy Polling numbers continue on with a trend that’s featured months on end of sinking poll numbers for Ernst. In a December survey conducted by the same firm, Ernst led Greenfield by a full 6 percent. By May, poll results showed Ernst with a meager 1 percent lead. Now, in June, as the general election gets closer, Ernst’s lead has disappeared completely, and, for now at least, Greenfield is in the lead among Iowa voters. The Cook Political Report currently estimates that the Iowa Senate race merely “leans” Republican, which is the final category before full-on “toss-up” status. These poll numbers showing Ernst losing suggest that all of the other races that “lean” Republican may also feature especially vulnerable GOP incumbents: that list includes, besides Ernst, races for both Senate seats in Georgia, along with races in Montana and Kansas. The same outlet estimates that currently GOP-held Senate seats in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine are all “toss-ups.”

Trump himself may be dragging down the chances of fellow Republicans thanks to his own wide unpopularity. In poll after poll on both the national and swing state level, he’s losing to presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Currently, RealClearPolitics states that Biden leads Trump in national polls by an average of 7.2 percent.