Republicans seem to be heading for an array of defeats in elections this November. Now, even new polling data from Fox News supports this notion. A newly released Fox News poll from Arizona features Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly with a whopping 50 percent of the support compared to just 37 percent for incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally. Although 8 percent of respondents said they were undecided, that still leaves Kelly with a leading margin of a full 13 percent. In the new polling data, Kelly leads with double-digit margins among women, men, non-white voters, and Latino voters, and he leads in cities, suburbs, and rural areas, suggesting that the paths to victory for the GOP in Arizona and elsewhere are closing fast as the country unites against them.
RCP poll average 152 days pre-election:
Now: Biden +7.2
2016: Clinton +3.8
2012: Obama +2.2
2008: Obama +2.2
2004: Kerry +1.6
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 4, 2020
In Arizona, the number of groups in which McSally was in the lead were a lot fewer — she led among voters who call themselves conservatives, white evangelicals, and white voters over 45. Relying specifically on groups like white voters over 45 isn’t exactly a winning electoral coalition for the GOP in Arizona or elsewhere — McSally is even doing worse than the already unpopular President Donald Trump. In the new Fox News poll, a full 13 percent of Republicans indicated that they’d vote for Trump for president but not vote for McSally for Senate.
RCP poll leads on this day in history:
2020: Biden +8.0
2016: Clinton +1.5
2012: Obama +1.3
2008: Obama +1.4
I think people generally remember the Obama wins as much easier and more predictable than they were.
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 3, 2020
McSally’s seat is one of at least four currently GOP-held seats that are in serious trouble heading into November. In addition to McSally’s seat in Arizona, the Cook Political Report identifies GOP-held Senate seats in Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine as toss-ups.
— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) June 3, 2020
The dismal outlook for Republican Senate candidates mirrors Trump’s own dismal outlook. In the new Fox News polling, Biden leads in Arizona, with 46 percent of the support compared to 42 percent for Trump. Currently, according to RealClearPolitics, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads Trump by an average of 7.1 percent in national level polling. Biden has maintained a sizable lead against Trump throughout basically the entirety of relevant polling.
National @MorningConsult Poll:
Biden 51% (+5)
Trump 39% (-2)
Biden's Biggest margin in the poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 1, 2020