In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump won Florida, albeit by a small margin — but he may not be able to hold onto the state in the 2020 general election. A new poll from the GOP-aligned firm Cygnal reveals that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is apparently leading in the state. In the new poll results, Biden got the support of 47 percent of likely voters, while Trump only garnered the support of 44 percent of likely voters, giving former Vice President Biden a 3 percent lead. Florida, it’s worth noting, was won by Barack Obama and then-VP candidate Joe Biden in both 2008 and 2012.
In the latest Cygnal poll, the margin of Biden’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 3.3 percent. However, Biden has led Trump in at least half a dozen additional polls of Florida voters that have been released since around the beginning of April. In a CNBC/ Change Research survey that was conducted in late May, Biden led in Florida by 3 percent. In a St. Pete Polls survey conducted shortly before that poll, Biden led in Florida by 1 percent. RealClearPolitics currently reports that across Florida polling, Biden currently leads by an average of 3.4 percent — which is, of course, more than enough to secure a crucial victory for the Democrats this November.
The pattern in Florida matches what’s been unfolding recently in polls across swing states, not to mention on the national level. In one recent national poll from CNN — which the Trump campaign petulantly demanded that the network retract and apologize for — Biden led by a staggering 14 percent on the national level. That overall lead could be more than enough to overcome the regional disparities that ensured that Trump won enough individual states in 2016 to win a leading margin in the electoral college while losing the popular vote. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics reports that Biden currently leads on average in polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which are crucial swing states.
In a recent CNN analysis, Chris Cilizza outlined how Trump’s paths to a winning margin in the electoral college have been shrinking. He explained:
‘President Donald Trump is now a decided underdog to reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term in the fall… [Polls reveal that] Biden, as of right now, has a WHOLE lot of different paths to 270 electoral votes, while Trump has a dwindling number… Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult electoral map today, with little suggesting a major change is coming anytime soon.’
Trump, of course, has largely refused to acknowledge any of this.
Instead, he’s ranted on and on with frequently outrageously ridiculous commentary on Twitter, like his recent allegation that a victim of assault could be a secret conspirator.
‘Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur. 75 year old Martin Gugino was pushed away after appearing to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment. @OANN I watched, he fell harder than was pushed. Was aiming scanner. Could be a set up?’
That’s utter nonsense.
To Mr. Gugino, we’re praying for a speedy recovery for you and your family.
Pres. Trump should go back to hiding in the bunker instead of tweeting baseless conspiracies about peaceful protestors and further dividing America.
What are Senate Republicans going to do about this? https://t.co/fjUNpGrEol
— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) June 9, 2020