Biden Sees Stunning 25% Surge In New Poll As Trump Crashes


Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump among female voters by a huge, “historic” margin, elections analyst Harry Enten explains in a new piece published via CNN. The last time that a Democratic presidential nominee came close to Biden’s current lead among female voters was decades ago. In 1964 election results, Lyndon Johnson led among women by about a full 24 percent — and currently, Biden’s overall lead among women in recent polls is even higher than that already high margin. Biden currently maintains a lead over Trump among female voters of a staggering about 25 percent when the figures aren’t rounded, Enten explains.

He reports:

‘Biden is earning a historic amount of support from female voters for a presidential nominee when examining polling over the last 70 years. Take a look at the most recent live interview polls of registered voters from May and June compiled by The New York Times’ Nate Cohn. Biden is leading among female registered voters by 59% to 35%, a 25-point margin when the numbers aren’t rounded… For now, all we can say is if this election were just left up to men, we’d be talking about a clear Trump lead instead of what it is in reality: a big Biden advantage.’

A “big advantage” is impressive stuff for the Democratic presidential candidate. Earlier this year, Enten adds, Biden led among female voters by 19 percent. Meanwhile, in the final pre-election polls of registered voters back in 2016, then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led by 14 percent — which is almost half the current Biden lead among female voters. Shortly before the 2016 election, Clinton led among “likely” female voters by 13 percent.

Notably, Biden is polling at around the same place that Clinton did when it’s specifically male voters under consideration. By a small margin, male voters as a group have tended towards Trump. Currently, Trump leads among male voters by about 6 percent, Enten explains. In 2016 polling, Hillary lost registered male voters by 5 percent and “likely” male voters by 7 percent. (Polls of “likely” voters are not undertaken until later in the election cycle than the current point in 2020, so there’s no polling of Biden’s standing with “likely” 2020 voters yet.)

Enten explains:

‘In fact, the only candidate to win the presidency since 1952 and do as poorly as Biden is doing with male voters right now was Barack Obama in 2012. Obama lost them by 6 points, per Gallup’s tally. The fact that Biden is leading overall (10 points) by a significantly wider margin than Obama won by (4 points), despite how poorly Biden is doing with men, is another indication of how strong he is with female voters.’

Biden, of course, was on the ballot alongside Obama when Obama won the White House in 2012. Currently, Biden is leading in polls in states that Obama won in 2012, including Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which Trump won in 2016.

Women are not the only group among whom Trump is polling poorly. Biden, for example, has been polling well among voters who are 65 years old and older — he’s been polling better than Hillary did, in fact. In 2016, Trump secured an estimated 53 percent of the senior vote, while Hillary got just 44 percent. In recent Quinnipiac University polling, Biden led Trump among seniors by a full 10 percent.