The real numbers people explain that Donald Trump has a “bigger hill to climb” in 2020 compared to his 2016 presidential campaign against Secretary Hillary Clinton. His biggest problem is, of course, former Vice President Joe Biden. One of Canada’s top-rated polling companies just released their damning poll.
One of Canada’s leading commentators on public opinion and political affairs, Bruce Anderson noted that his company had a different perspective than US pollsters:
‘The challenge for President Trump is unmistakable, and with only a few months to go until voters decide on whether he gets a second term there are definitely more headwinds than tailwinds. Throughout his presidency, even with a strong economy for much of the time, he’s struggled to build confidence and his approval level has almost never been above 50%. Today, with a deep recession and a pandemic, patience with his approach is wearing thinner.’Anderson continued explaining how Trump alienated people:
‘Trump has battled with everyone other than the most loyal Republican partisans and as a result has failed to broaden his constituency, while motivating many to work to replace him. Looking at these patterns of opinion, GOP strategists may have concluded that their most plausible path to re-election is not by converting independents or swing voters but finding ways to suppress turnout and/or disqualify voters who want change.’
David Coletto was one of the founding partners and CEO of Abacus Data in charge of the research consultants and strategists. He is also “an outspoken proponent of transparency in the polling industry:”
‘With an approval rating below 40%, Donald Trump’s re-election chances appear to be quite challenging, 5-months out from Election Day. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a solid lead among registered and likely voters, is competitive among White voters, leads big in swing states Trump won in 2016, and appears to be benefiting from a motivated electorate that is building towards another blue-wave election like in the 2018 mid-terms.’
At this time, Trump trailed Biden by 14 percentage points among registered voters 35 percent to Biden’s 49 percent.
A full 63 percent of those most likely to vote said they were certain to cast a ballot, which was extremely high participation for American presidential elections. The more people who vote, the more “Biden stands to benefit, as he leads by very wide margins among those who might vote:”
‘In swing states that Trump won in 201 (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, WI) Biden leads by 17-points. Biden has a 22-point lead in solid Democratic states while Trump leads by a smaller 2-point margin in typically solid Republican states, although some of those states like Arizona, Texas, and Georgia are closer than in 2016.’
Biden was far and away ahead of Trump among those 50-year-old and under. Trump was shown to be “competitive” to those 51 and over.
Trump and Biden tied among 70 percent of the voters, white citizens, 44 percent to 43 percent:
‘Biden leads by a huge margin among Black voters (77% to 6%) and among Hispanic or Latino voters (61% to 19%). Trump leads by 9-points among White voters without a college degree while Biden and Trump are tied among Whites with a college degree.’
Trump’s job approval rating was only 38 percent. A wide majority, 54 percent, disapprove. The individuals who “strongly disapproved” beat out those who “strongly approve” two to one.
A full 83 percent of the Republicans polled approved of Trump’s job performance thus far. Only 13 percent of Democrats approved, and 26 percent of Independents approved. White voters split equally between approving, 46 percent, and disapproving, 48 percent:
‘Blacks and Latinos overwhelmingly disapprove of the job he’s [Trump’s] doing.’
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.
