2020 U.S. Senate Poll Results Show Historic Multi-Week Change

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A new set of poll results from The New York Times reveals that while President Donald Trump’s standing continues to fall ahead of the November elections, the standings of Republican Senate candidates across the country are also taking a major dive. In the New York Times/ Siena College polling, Democrats led in Senate races in Arizona, North Carolina, and Michigan. Alongside races in Colorado, Maine, and Montana, the Arizona and North Carolina races are some of the top Democratic targets, while the Michigan race in which the Democratic incumbent is leading is one of the few high-profile Republican targets.

The low poll numbers for Republican candidates in these races correlate closely with low poll numbers in their respective states for President Trump himself. For example, in Arizona, Trump is losing to presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 7 percent in the new poll results, and Arizona’s incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally is losing to her general election opponent, Mark Kelly, by 9 percent. Kelly nabbed 47 percent of the support compared to just 38 percent for McSally.

A similar pattern repeats in Michigan and North Carolina. In Michigan, Trump is losing to Biden by 11 percent in the new poll results, and Republican Senate candidate John James is losing to incumbent Democrat Gary Peters by 10 percent, with only 31 percent of the support compared to a full 41 percent for Peters. In North Carolina, Trump is losing by a full 9 percent in the new poll results, and that state’s incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis nabbed just 39 percent of the support, compared to a full 42 percent of respondents who went for Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham.

The Times explains:

‘President Trump’s erratic performance in office and his deteriorating standing in the polls is posing a grave threat to his party’s Senate majority, imperiling incumbents in crucial swing states and undermining Republican prospects in one of the few states they had hoped to gain a seat, according to a new poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College… Taken together, the three battleground states paint a grim picture for Republicans right now — and suggest that if Mr. Trump does not arrest his fall he could hand Democrats control of both the presidency and the Senate next year.’

As long as Republicans in the Senate largely stick by Trump, their dismal fortunes don’t seem likely to change. At the conclusion of Trump’s Senate impeachment trial, only a single Senate Republican — Utah’s Mitt Romney — voted to convict Trump of either of the charges against him, and Romney isn’t even up for re-election this year, meaning that if Trump loses in November, Rommey could end up in office as Senator for longer than Trump is in the White House.

Voters seem sick of the president’s belligerence. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden leads Trump by an average of 10 percent in national polling as of Thursday morning. Biden also leads in crucial swing states, including Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These leads could be enough to ensure that Trump does not receive a second term in office.