Every major political campaign conducts near-constant internal polling, trying to gauge the current standing of the candidate in question. However, when a political party fails to publish those internal polling results, it’s indicative that they’re not seeing anything they like, and only Democrats are publishing results in large numbers.
"GOP internal polling signals a Democratic rout." The GOP has released 0 district polls conducted since April. Dems have released 17. Historically, the difference between # of polls put out by each party is HIGHLY correlated with November's result. https://t.co/Wo6BBV0E0o
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 4, 2020
Republicans, on the other hand, are not. It isn’t just polling for Donald Trump that’s going terribly, internal polling results aren’t being released in support of Republican members of Congress, either. Should Democrats hold on to the majority in the House and flip just four seats in the Senate, the predicted blue wave will have come to pass.
CNN reports that:
‘All but four of the nine conservative or Republican sponsored polls have been from monthly Restoration PAC releases. And if anything, the polls that this group sponsors have been some of the worst for Trump recently.’
In 2018, during the midterm elections, that blue wave was realized when House Democrats added 40 new seats to their roster. Trump’s approval ratings were not as low at that point as they are now, there was no global pandemic, and the economy wasn’t largely tanked at the time, either. For Republicans, this election is shaping up to be a disaster.
Harry Enten, reporter for CNN, writes that:
‘This reminds me a lot of what happened just two years ago. Almost universally, Democrats were the ones publishing their House polls publicly. They went on to have a net gain of 40 seats in the House. Democrats also won the House popular vote by 9 points.’
The most 👀 tidbit in this story?
Internal GOP polling showing Trump barely ahead in Montana and behind in Georgia and KANSAS.
Between those three states there are FOUR vulnerable GOP-held Senate seats.
If Trump flounders, we flip them all.https://t.co/AvhqDpZxIo
— TrumpsTaxes (@TrumpsTaxes) July 2, 2020
That approval rating is still declining, as well. Trump has reached all new lows, no matter how many times he makes the false claim that he has a 96 percent approval rating among the Republican Party.
‘The April turning point lines up well with when the coronavirus pandemic became the headline story of the year. It’s when President Donald Trump’s approval rating started an almost continuous decline that remains unabated.’
This quote is mildly funny because, over three of these four months, Trump has claimed over and over that his approval with Republicans is "96%." Now we know for sure that this number is imaginary, not from internal polling. https://t.co/2gdh81WV7V pic.twitter.com/54KMe0Zl4h
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) July 1, 2020
Featured image screenshot via YouTube
