New Trump Vs Biden Prediction Model Shows Major Multi-Week Surge


Donald Trump has been dancing like a man on the ceiling of the ninth level of hell. His desperation has become evident as he becomes ever more frantic in his actions. “Throw open those school doors” he cries. Coronavirus cannot hurt them — much. And only if you do not mind tossing grandma onto POTUS sacrificial reelection altar.

A new Cook Political Report relayed that one of the top election forecasters had very bad news for the former leader of the free world. Reporter Amy Walter noted that the poll FiveThirtyEight showed:

‘This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.’


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Walter pointed out that the nation has changed its Electoral College rating to reflect what FiveThirtyEight showed in its polls. The following states changed significantly.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Nebraska’s 2nd District used to be in the “Toss Up” category. Now, these three important indicators have gone to “Lean Democrat.”

Once Maine was a “Lean Democrat” state. Yet, now it has shifted to the “Likely Democratic” category. Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina have been the “Toss Up” category, but now Maine has joined these states. Even more surprisingly, Maine’s 2nd District jumped from “Likely Republican” to just “Lean Republican.”

Why was that important? The name of the game has always been about the Electoral College, not the popular vote. Just look at how Secretary Hillary Clinton lost to Trump. Even though the Supreme Court decided this week that the states must deal with continuing the Electoral College and many considered this the first step toward eliminating it, the nation still lives in an Electoral College reality.

With the recent shifts in categories reflected in the Cook Political Report, these highly significant states gave former Vice President Joe Biden (D) 279 votes, well over the 270 vote threshold to win the presidential election in 2020.

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The Cook Political Report spoke to Republican strategists who believed that Trump may have reached the “point of no return.” It appeared that “a couple of others” thought this president of our United States had achieved his “Katrina” moment. In other words, Trump had fully lost more people’s “trust and faith’ than not.

Plus, both Republican and Democratic strategists decided that by last week, POTUS was pulling Republican Congressional candidates down with him. These bipartisan strategists indicated that the president has been behind in the very same districts he easily won in 2016. A Republican strategist told Walter:

‘I’d be surprised if any House GOP challenger is able to outperform Trump — they are tied to him.’

On the other side, the Senate, Democratic candidates have been surging far ahead in the “eye-popping second-quarter fundraising totals.” That included even those in the “second and third-tier races.”

Then, the Cook Report asked the ever-important question: could those trends change before the November presidential election? Asked and answered:

‘Of course. So, this comes with that important caveat. But, we also know that the president is not interested in changing his approach or focus. As one strategist who has been doing extensive focus group work with suburban voters tells us, “they are mostly done with Trump.”’

If Trump will not change, and he has shown no evidence of even being able to accomplish that, the biggest remaining determinator would be how many people vote. The nation has been looking at serious voters suppression, so the numbers of voters must be overwhelming. Trump will not leave should the results be close. He would call the electoral “rigged” a process as he has already begun.


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The Cook Report delved into the election process:

‘One of the biggest unknowns, however, is voting itself. As we’ve seen this spring and early summer, most states are not prepared for an onslaught of absentee ballots. And confusion about how/where to vote could impact turnout. Moreover, if voters start to sense that the race for president is a blow-out, will they be more willing to split their tickets to ensure a “check and balance: in Washington next fall?’

Walter continued:

At least one Republican I spoke with, however, was wary of a check and balance working this year, telling me that “people are looking for a restart and a reset.” That includes down-ballot candidates as well as the president. ‘

The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.