New 2020 Senate Prediction Model Shows Vast Multi-Month Surge


While the world holds its breath waiting to see if the long nightmare that began in November 2016 will finally be over, a number of House and Senate races are beginning to look very much in play for the Democratic Party. A Cook Political Report released on Thursday shows that a blue wave may very well be headed for the Senate.

The prospects for Republicans to hold onto their majority in the Senate looks grim, as one GOP pollster noted. As the race heads closer to November, seats that leaned Republican are changing to toss-ups and toss-ups are turning toward leaning Democrat. Democrats need to win four seats in the Senate in November if Joe Biden wins the presidency and five if he does not to win control.

‘Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.’

2020 is just not cooperating with Republicans, and especially not Trump, with what Cook calls “a perfect storm” of bad luck based on bad decisions and standpoints. The COVID-19 crisis was downplayed in an extreme way by Trump, who didn’t want to take the fall-out in his own race, and Republicans supported his falsehoods about the pandemic. Add to that crisis the growing protests over racial injustice following the death of 46-year-old father of two George Floyd and a massive drop in employment and Republicans are likely to lose all control in 2020.

‘The worsening pandemic, along with Biden emerging as the Democratic nominee instead of Bernie Sanders, was the “perfect storm” Republicans feared. Now, with the death toll nearing 150,000, the environment has gotten even worse for the GOP, prodded along by Trump’s missteps. Racial injustice protests after the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery in early June further galvanized the nation, leading to rapid cultural shifts against Confederate monuments and even the long pushed for change of the Mississippi state flag, which still bore the Confederate battle flag emblem.’

Screen-Shot-2020-07-24-at-9.14.40-AM New 2020 Senate Prediction Model Shows Vast Multi-Month Surge Donald Trump Election 2020 Featured Politics Polls Top Stories

With the prospect of both houses of Congress being dominated by Democratic candidates, the presidential race is not offering any hope for Republicans, either. Trump is currently down in many polls by double digits in numbers not seen since the incumbent losses of Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush, both of whom ended up as one-term presidents.

‘Ultimately, every day that Trump stubbornly refuses to change course is another day that it becomes increasingly likely he may not only tank his own re-election bid but could be on a kamikaze mission to take the Republican-held Senate down with him. At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one to three seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority.’

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