New Swing State Polling Shows Decisive Nine-State Biden Sweep


A new round of polling from Morning Consult has Democratic presidential pick Joe Biden leading in nine key states. The states covered by the polling include Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. Trump won most of those states in 2016; the only Clinton victories on the list were Colorado and Minnesota. If Biden carried even some of the additional states on the list, then he might be able to deny Trump a second term in office. States like Michigan and Florida were critical for Trump’s 2016 leading margin in the electoral college — with 45 electoral votes between those two states alone, moving them from the Republican to Democratic column and leaving everything else the same from the 2016 results would give Biden a win.

In the latest Morning Consult polling, Biden led in Michigan, Arizona, and Colorado by 10 percent, in Wisconsin by 9 percent, in Minnesota by 7 percent, in Pennsylvania by 4 percent, in Georgia by 3 percent, and in Florida and North Carolina by 2 percent. In Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, Biden was at 50 percent or above overall, making his leads essentially insurmountable if the distribution of support reflected in the polling results was to hold until Election Day, which isn’t that far into the future at all. In each of the other states, Biden was at 49 percent, putting him pretty close to an insurmountable lead.

As of Tuesday morning, with the Morning Consult data seemingly not factored in, Biden led Trump by an average of 6.2 percent in national-level polling, according to RealClearPolitics. FiveThirtyEight had Biden’s national-level lead at an average of 7.1 percent, with at least some recent Morning Consult data factored in. Critically, the outlet had Biden with an average of 50.3 percent of the overall support, putting him just over the top with an essentially insurmountable lead, at least on the national level. In 2016, Hillary Clinton ended up with 48.2 percent of the national popular vote. (Trump had 46.1 percent of the popular vote.)

There are a number of crises likely weighing on voters’ opinions in the presidential race. For instance, as of early September 1, an average of 57.7 percent of Americans say that they disapprove of the president’s Coronavirus response, according to FiveThirtyEight. With millions of infections and over 180,000 deaths, that’s not exactly an issue able to be swept aside, no matter how much Trump tries.