President Donald Trump may be heading for a major loss this November. In addition to other recent poll data like the Fox News surveys that had Democratic presidential pick Joe Biden up in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona, a new poll has come out with Biden in the lead in Texas. The poll, conducted by a firm called Data for Progress, showed Biden with 48 percent of the support and Trump with 45 percent. In 2016, Trump won Texas by about nine percent over Hillary Clinton. It’s worth noting — the political statistics resource website FiveThirtyEight currently gives Data for Progress a rating of B-, indicating a relatively high reliability for their polling.
#NEW Texas Poll:
Biden 48% (+3)
Trump 45%@DataProgress (8/20-25)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 4, 2020
As of Friday afternoon, Biden leads in national-level polls by an average of 7.4 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. Recent national-level polls, as cataloged by FiveThirtyEight, include a USC Dornsife survey of a little over 2,500 “likely” voters, among whom Biden led by 11 percent. Among 695 registered voters in a recent national-level Data for Progress poll, Biden led by 10 percent. The website FiveThirtyEight also gives Biden a 70 percent chance of winning the election — they give Trump a 29 percent chance of eking out a win, and they estimate that there’s a one percent chance that neither major party candidate ekes out a majority in the electoral college and the election therefore gets kicked to Congress.
As for the level of other individual states besides Texas, Biden also currently leads, on average, in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Trump won each and every one of those states in 2016, and some of them, like Florida and Wisconsin, were especially crucial to his victory. Biden’s leading margins, as of Friday afternoon, range from 0.6 percent in North Carolina to 5 percent in Arizona, according to RealClearPolitics.
Trump has consistently refused to acknowledge his faltering political chances. When polls like the recent round of Fox News surveys have come out, he’s frequently rushed to publicly complain about his supposedly unfair treatment by the media. The polls, however, are not fake — the reality is that many Americans, by and large, seem to be sick of Trump’s glaring incompetence, which has put lives on the line amidst crises like the Coronavirus pandemic.