Another set of swing state polls have come out whose results are dramatically good for the Biden camp. In a new slate of polls released by Morning Consult, Democratic presidential pick Joe Biden leads in seven key swing states around the country, all of which Donald Trump won in 2016. The list of states includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. In the same set of polling, Biden and Trump were tied, with 46 percent of the support each, in Texas. Previously, Texas turning “blue” might have been unheard of, but it’s a distinct possibility in the upcoming presidential election.
Biden 52 (+10)
Biden 51 (+8)
Biden 49 (+5)
Biden 50 (+5)
Biden 50 (+5)
Biden 49 (+3)
Biden 48 (+1)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2020
In Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida, Biden’s share of the support was at 50 percent or above in the new polling, which bodes well for the stability of his lead. If Biden is able to secure 50.1 percent of the vote in any of those states, then no number of undecided voters could possibly swing the respective sets of results to Trump. If Biden wins in just a few of the states covered in the new Morning Consult polling, then he could successfully deny Trump a second term in office, if all the other results stayed about the same as they were in 2016. As of early Wednesday, Biden leads in both Michigan and Wisconsin by an average of 7.5 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, which is a good sign for his chances.
On the national level, Biden leads Trump by an average of 7.8 percent as of early Tuesday, also according to FiveThirtyEight. According to that site’s Nate Silver, if Biden is able to maintain a leading margin in the national popular vote of at least six percent in the actual election, then he has an about 99 percent chance of winning the electoral college. In other words, if his national popular vote lead is big enough, then odds are that there won’t be a repeat of 2016 when one candidate won the popular vote and another won the electoral college. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by just over 2 percent — with a margin that thin, there’s only an about 46 percent chance that the leading candidate wins the popular vote, according to Silver.
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020
Trump has consistently declined to seriously acknowledge his dismal poll numbers. Instead, he just rants ad nauseum about supposed “Fake News.”