A new Monmouth University poll shows a five-percent lead for Democratic presidential pick Joe Biden in the state of Florida, which is likely to be a key addition to the coalition of whichever candidate happens to win the presidency. If all else stayed the same as it was in 2016, except for Biden nabbing the Sunshine State, then Biden would only need to flip six additional electoral votes to his side to get Trump below 270. In the Monmouth results, Biden had 50 percent of the support, while Trump had 45 percent of the support.
Biden’s support level suggests that his lead is rather stable — if he were to secure 50.1 percent of the vote on Election Day, then no number of voters would be able to shift the state to Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight, who had factored the Monmouth numbers into their calculations, Biden led Trump in Florida polls by an average of 2.4 percent as of Tuesday afternoon. Biden had 48.6 percent of the support, while Trump had just 46.2 percent.
Biden has some solid standings among key populations in Florida. In the new Monmouth results, among voters 65 and older, Trump nabbed 49 percent of the support while Biden had 47 percent; the difference is within the poll’s margin of error. According to exit polls, Trump led among Florida seniors by 17 percent in 2016, so even a two percent leading margin for the president among the same population in the latest Monmouth survey represents a big shift towards Democrats. Meanwhile, among white voters, who Trump won by 32 percent in 2016, he led by 17 percent in the latest Monmouth survey results, which represents another substantial shift towards Democrats.
When breaking down the results by geographical area, Biden leads in key regions, including Central and South Florida, where he led by 6 and 29 percent, respectively. South Florida has long leaned towards Democrats, but Trump won Central Florida in 2016, suggesting yet another shift towards Democrats. A recent assessment of the race in The New York Times insisted that “elections in Florida are won by driving up turnout among the faithful and running up margins in favorable terrain while losing more closely in hostile precincts,” so there are some great signs for Biden in these new Monmouth University poll numbers.
