Another round of new swing state polls have great news for Democrats. In a selection of polls that were released by Civiqs on Friday, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had some impressive leads in the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which Donald Trump won in 2016 and which were crucial to his victory at the time. In the latest Civiqs polling, Biden led by 11 percent in Michigan and by 7 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and in every one of the states, he garnered a level of overall support that was above 50 percent. That level of support bodes well for the stability of his leads — no number of undecided voters can swing a given election to Trump if Biden hits 50.1 percent.
#NEW Civiqs/Rustbelt Rising Poll:
Biden 53% (+11)
Biden 52% (+7)
Biden 51% (+7)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 18, 2020
Biden himself was, of course, on the ticket when then-presidential candidate (and then-President) Barack Obama won each one of those three states in both 2008 and 2012. In 2008, the Obama-Biden ticket won Michigan against then-challenger John McCain by a whopping over 16 percent. In the current electoral cycle, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Pennsylvania is the state that’s most likely to deliver the winning margin to the winning presidential candidate. (Wisconsin and Michigan are also among the top five states most likely to deliver the winning margin to the victor.) As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Biden has an overall 77 percent chance of winning the national election.
Why should Americans want to re-elect Trump in the first place? He’s sold out the country for his personal benefit. During the Coronavirus pandemic, he has left Americans to struggle. A bombshell Vanity Fair article that dropped this week revealed that Trump’s son-in-law and top adviser Jared Kushner had apparently referred to looming suffering and death in New York as “their problem” during the early stages of the pandemic. That’s the Trump administration’s modus operandi.
On the national level, Biden is currently leading by an average of 6.7 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. If Biden is able to nab that high of a lead in the national popular vote, that site’s Nate Silver has estimated that there’s a 99 percent chance of Biden also winning the majority in the electoral college.
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020