As the general election approaches, another set of polling data from swing states has emerged that contains great news for Democrats. In the results from polls recently released by Hart Research Associates, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads by double digits in two key swing states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona. In both states, he had 53 percent of the support compared to Trump’s 42 percent, giving him an 11 percent lead in each state. FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Pennsylvania is the state that is most likely to deliver the decisive margin to the winning presidential candidate this November.
#NEW Hart Research Associates (D) Polls:
Arizona:
Biden 53% (+11)
Trump 42%Pennsylvania:
Biden 53% (+11)
Trump 42%Wisconsin:
Biden 51% (+7)
Trump 44%Florida:
Biden 51% (+6)
Trump 45%(LV 9/17-9/19)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 26, 2020
Among the Pennsylvania polls that are cataloged by FiveThirtyEight, the last time that Biden had a double digit lead in the high-profile swing state was in late August, when a Global Strategy Group survey came out that had Biden up by 10 percent when pitting him against just Trump. (His lead shrunk when he was presented on a list including third party candidates.) As of early Sunday, Biden leads in Pennsylvania by an average of 4.9 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, making the race seem definitely pretty close. (The average includes the new Hart Research numbers.)
The Hart Research numbers had good results for Biden in other swing states too. For example, the survey found a 6 percent lead for Biden in Florida, which is the highest Biden lead among any Florida polls cataloged by FiveThirtyEight since an Opinium survey in early September found a 7 percent Biden lead. Polls like a recent Washington Post/ ABC News survey of “likely” voters found a Trump lead in the state. (That particular survey had Trump leading by 4 percent.)
On Tuesday, Trump and Biden will face off in their first debate. Trump has already indicated that he’s leaning far into his most fervent belligerence ahead of the face-off — on Sunday, he insisted that he would be demanding a drug test for Biden prior to the debate, suggesting that the Democratic presidential nominee might be on performance-enhancing drugs. There is zero evidence whatsoever that supports this notion, of course — Trump just seems like he’s pulling out whatever nonsense that he can as the election gets closer.
This reminds me of what my friend Senator Fritz Hollings once said when his opponent challenged him to take a drug test: "I'll take a drug test if you'll take an IQ test." https://t.co/8Ro8ExB3Bs
— John Kerry (@JohnKerry) September 27, 2020
