Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead in new swing state polling released on Saturday by The New York Times and conducted in cooperation with Siena College. The polling data includes results for Florida and Pennsylvania, which FiveThirtyEight estimates are the two states that are most likely to put the eventually victorious presidential candidate over the top with a winning margin. The polls were conducted after the debate last Tuesday between Trump and Biden, and a full 65 percent of respondents said that they disapproved of the president’s debate conduct. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania specifically, Biden led by 7 percent when respondents were asked for their presidential election choice. In Florida, Biden led by 5 percent.
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to 42.https://t.co/wVmJug6Yax
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 3, 2020
The presidential preference results are among likely voters, specifically, rather than registered voters or even adults as a whole. According to FiveThirtyEight, who had already included the New York Times/ Siena College numbers in their latest calculations, Biden led in Florida polls by an average of 2.6 percent as of late Saturday morning. As of that same point, Biden led in Pennsylvania polls by an average of 5.9 percent. As of that same point, FiveThirtyEight estimated that Biden had a 63 percent chance of winning Florida and an 81 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.
It’s worth noting — FiveThirtyEight gives New York Times/ Siena College an “A+” pollster rating, which is rare and indicates a high degree of confidence in the results. The most recent Pennsylvania poll results from an A+ rated pollster came late last month, when ABC News/ The Washington Post had Biden up in the state by 10 percent among registered voters and 9 percent among so-called “likely” voters. In Florida, the most recent A+ rated poll results prior to the new New York Times/ Siena College survey also came from ABC News/ The Washington Post. In a poll conducted in mid-September, the pollster found Biden up by a mere 1 percent among registered voters — and down 4 percent among so-called “likely” voters.
The latest New York Times/ Siena College results make it clear that this past week’s debate does not seem to have boosted the Trump campaign. A full 11 percent of the president’s own supporters even said that they strongly disapproved of his debate performance — and in a close election, that kind of margin can be critical.