On Tuesday, President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is hosting a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania. As of this week, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Pennsylvania is the state that is most likely to put the eventual victorious presidential candidate over the top. (They estimate Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan to be the second, third, and fourth most likely states to become the “tipping point.”) The anti-Trump conservative group known as The Lincoln Project released a new Pennsylvania-specific anti-Trump ad on Tuesday. In the ad, a narrator proclaims that there’s “mourning in Pennsylvania” and recounts some of the devastating tolls of the crises that have unfolded with Trump in charge.
The new Lincoln Project ad riffs off of a famous Reagan campaign ad that proclaimed that “morning” had come to America with Reagan in charge. In the new Lincoln Project video, a narrator says:
‘There’s mourning in Pennsylvania. Today, hundreds of thousands of Americans have died from a deadly virus Donald Trump ignored, praising China’s response instead of heeding the warnings, then blaming them to cover his own failures. With the economy in shambles, people across Pennsylvania are still out of work — one of the worst economies in decades… Millions worry that a loved one won’t survive COVID-19. There’s mourning in Pennsylvania, and under the leadership of Donald Trump, our state is weaker and sicker and poorer, and now, Americans are asking — if we have another four years like this, will there even be an America?’
Watch the ad below:
As Trump visits Erie, PA today, there's mourning in Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/bXJPkmRGxv
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 20, 2020
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — which is an agency of the U.S. federal government — the unemployment rate was estimated at 8.1 percent in Pennsylvania in September, which is still significantly higher than the state’s February unemployment rate of 4.7 percent. At a peak of the pandemic-associated unemployment crisis in the state, Pennsylvania unemployment hit 16.1 percent in April, before slowly climbing down in subsequent months. Across this timeframe, Pennsylvania has lost a total of over 8,500 lives to the Coronavirus. In the U.S. as a whole, there have been over 220,000 Coronavirus deaths.
As of Tuesday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Biden is most likely to win in Pennsylvania if the election were to be held today. The site gives him an about 87 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania, and polls in the state that have been cataloged by the site have Biden in the lead by an average of 6.4 percent as of Tuesday. Biden has repeatedly led in recent national-level polls by double-digits.
Check out Twitter’s response to the new Lincoln Project ad below: