New Swing State Early Voting Totals Confirm Explosive Blue Surge

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Over 47 million Americans have already voted early in 25 percent of the states, according to the U.S. Election Project. It is possible that 100 million more votes will be coming in with 11 days to go before the traditional election day. The nation has a voting season, it seems. Even though the numbers favor the Democrats right now, voters should not get too comfortable.

Once burned by the 2016 surprise win, people know that every vote counts. The polls lean toward Joe Biden, but some of Donald Trump’s voters do not trust the government and by extension, the polls and poll takers. When Secretary Hillary Clinton ran against Trump, we saw a huge dome of Republican voters slowly rising on the horizon. This unrecognized voting effort gave the president just enough votes to carry the Electoral College.

Mail-in ballots tend to favor the Democrats, especially in this coronavirus pandemic. Republicans tend to wait until November 3.

Then, there is Trump’s threat of “rigged” elections. Unless Americans have a staggering win, he may well take the presidency to the Supreme Court where he is currently installing a loyal, mega-conservative justice.

Longtime Republican strategist Scott Reed said, according to The POLITICO:

‘It’s a warning flare. Some Republicans are stuck in a model that we always run up the score on Election Day to make up the difference. I think running an election in a superpolarized electorate, you want to win early voting. Let’s go. Let’s stop talking and making excuses.’

Hawkfish’s CEO Josh Mendelsohn said Democrats should not depend too heavily upon forecasting models:

‘Democrats are enthused, that’s clear. I find that folks want these models to be forecasts, and they want the forecasts to be like a hurricane forecast and just to be perfect. And it’s not, because it is like hurricanes, you’ve got a whole bunch of model tracks, of which some are more reliable than others in certain circumstances.’

Chris Wilson is a top Republican data analyst who independently reviewed the Hawkfish numbers for POLITICO. He said:

‘The concerning thing for Republicans is that once a Democrat vote is cast, or once a vote is cast in general, it can’t be taken back. That to me is the bigger issue here: Our window to message and convert any of these voters away from voting Democrat is shorter than the number of days left in the campaign.’

Wilson said:

‘Great news. We lead [in the polls]. But if you look at the early vote, we have to win 2-to-1 on Election Day. And that’s probably just about every contested race in America.’

Arizona

Total ballots cast/Ballots cast by newly registered voters from Arizona’s Four Million Voters

  • 1.1 million for which Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 58 percent. Trump: 42 percent.
  • 75,000. Biden: 57 percent. Trump: 43.

POLITICO said:

‘Polls show Biden leading as well as Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly. Compared with 2016, Democratic returns are 74 percent higher while Republican returns are up 29 percent.’

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SOURCE: POLITICO.

Florida

Total ballots cast/Ballots cast by newly registered voters from Florida’s 14.4 registered voters

  •  Biden: 56 percent. Trump: 44 percent.
  • 422,000. Biden: 55 percent. Trump: 45 percent.

POLITICO said:

‘No party has ever jumped to a lead like Democrats have in pre-Election Day voting. Factoring in independents, who are largely composed of No Party Affiliation, Biden appears to be winning the swing voters of the swing state.’

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SOURCE: POLITICO.

Michigan

Total ballots cast/Ballots cast by newly registered voters from Michigan 1.8 registered voters

  • Biden: 62 percent. Trump: 38 percent. 
  • 139,000. Biden: 63 percent. Trump: 37 percent.

POLITICO said:

‘While Michigan does not have hard party registration figures like most other states, internal Democratic modeling gives Biden an edge so far.’

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SOURCE: POLITICO.

Pennsylvania

Total ballots cast/Ballots cast by newly registered voters from Pennsylvania 9 million registered voters

  • Biden: 73 percent. Trump: 27 percent.
  • 57,000. Biden: 72 percent. Trump: 28 percent.

POLITICO said:

Pennsylvania has slowly drifted from the president in polling and his handling of coronavirus came at the worst time for him.’

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SOURCE: POLITICO.

Wisconsin

Total ballots cast of Wisconsin’s 3.6 million registered voters/Ballots cast by newly registered voters

  • Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.
  • 66,000. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.

POLITICO said:

‘Coronavirus cases are on the rise in Wisconsin, along with voter anger at Trump’s handling of it.’

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SOURCE: POLITICO.

POLITICO said:

‘[N]ot every Democrat is voting for Biden nor every Republican for Trump…Biden has a slight edge among independents, which could prove decisive.’

Twitter world went bananas when Americans realized that every vote really does count. Check out these favorites below:

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