A new poll from Texas — which isn’t exactly known as a hotspot of Democratic victories — has Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the lead over President Donald Trump. In the new Dallas Morning News/ University of Texas at Tyler survey, Biden had 48 percent of the support among so-called likely voters, while Trump only had 45 percent of their support. Two of the leading third party candidates collectively accounted for a total of 3 percent of the rest of that support — two percent of the poll respondents chose Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, while one percent of the respondents chose Green Party contender Howie Hawkins.
#NEW Texas Poll:
Biden 48% (+3)
University of Texas at Tyler
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 25, 2020
The September edition of the same Texas survey had Biden down by 2 percent, meaning that there’s been a 5 percent surge for Biden with this pollster. Biden boosted his campaign’s lead by “expanding his support among independents and grabbing a better than 3-to-1 advantage among Hispanics,” The Dallas Morning News says. Among other points: in the September edition of the survey, Biden had the support of 46 percent of independents, while Trump had 37 percent. In October, Biden’s share of independents’ support rose to 51 percent, while Trump sunk to a meager 29 percent. Meanwhile, in September, Biden led among Hispanic respondents in the Texas survey by 30 percent — but in the October survey, he led by a whopping 48 percent.
9 days out, folks
— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 25, 2020
The new survey also measured Texans’ attitudes on issues including the Coronavirus pandemic, and a full 54 percent of respondents indicated that they did not trust Trump to “keep their communities healthy and safe during the public health crisis” of the Coronavirus pandemic, according to the new report from The Dallas Morning News. With cases, hospitalizations, and deaths again rising after an already chaotic and devastating summer, this issue looms large. Some 225,000 Americans, including about 18,000 Texans, have already lost their lives — but Trump and his closest allies have consistently refused to acknowledge the failures of their federal response to the pandemic.
The last time that a Democratic presidential nominee won Texas was when Jimmy Carter was on the ballot all the way back in 1976. Nevertheless, amidst a nationwide surge of support for Democrats, an upset win for Biden in the state seems definitely possible. As of early Sunday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight had Trump up in their average of polling from the state by a meager 0.1 percent. As of that same point, the site gave Trump an about 63 percent chance of winning the state — meaning that, by their estimation, there’s an about one-in-three chance of an upset Democratic victory in Texas this November.