Last week former Vice President Joe Biden was neck-and-neck with Donald Trump in Georgia. Since then, the coronavirus pandemic exploded all over the middle of the country and is trying to resurge in New York.
One virus hit should have been enough for New York. But as we are learning, this deadly virus works in a myriad of mysterious ways. That leans on the economy and causes it and the stock market to pitch and roll. There is some good news, though.
Biden met Donald Trump in a Georgia neck-and-neck performance in the Monmouth University poll. Then, this week he pulled ahead and waved goodbye. Right now, the former VP has a 5-point lead in the state.
When that happens, the effect can be felt all the way down the political ladder. Democrats have also improved their standing in the two U.S. Senate races, erasing a GOP lead in the regularly scheduled battle and leaving two Republicans fighting for a spot in the special election runoff:
‘Democrats have also taken the lead in Georgia’s two closely watched Senate races, according to the Monmouth poll. In the state’s regularly scheduled Senate election, Democrat Jon Ossoff now leads Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) 49 percent to 46 percent. The university’s September poll showed Perdue with a 6-point lead over Ossoff.’
‘In the special election for former Senator Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) seat, Democrat Raphael Warnock garners 41 percent support, up 20 points from September. Meanwhile, his two main Republican opponents, Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Representative Doug Collins (R-GA), captured 21 percent and 18 percent support, respectively.’
The turnout was astounding:
‘A full 50 percent of all registered Georgia voters support Biden. Only 45 percent support POTUS. Two percent went Libertarian, Jo Jorgensen, and two percent are undecided still. Last month Trump was ahead by one percent, 47 percent to Biden’s 46 percent. In July the two men were tied with 47 percentage points each.’
The higher turnout was responsible for the gain, and we assume Biden’s message had something to do with it, too, as well as the pandemic. When the poll used a lower turnout model, Biden was 50 percent and Trump was 48 percent.
The turnout has been astounding. Well over half (58 percent) of all registered Georgia voters have already done so. In this group, Biden leads with 55 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. Among the remaining voters, Trump wins 48 to Biden’s 44 percent.
Director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute Patrick Murray expects Trump to win on Election Day:
‘Trump is likely to win the Election Day vote. The question is by how much. The Democratic voters left on the table at this point tend to be less engaged and thus harder to turn out. So, it is still possible for Trump to make up his deficit in the early vote.’
Georgia voters agree with Murray, 51 percent to 42 percent. He said:
‘Trump maintains an advantage among Georgia voters aged 65 and older – leading Biden by 58% to 42% now, versus 61% to 36% in September. This is noteworthy because Biden has led among senior voters both nationally and in the other swing states Monmouth has polled in the past month’
‘However, Biden is able to offset his deficit in Georgia with support from younger voters, who make up a relatively larger share of the electorate here than in other swing states. He currently holds a 54% to 40% lead over Trump among voters under 50 years old, up from his 47% to 42% lead with this group last month.’
Murray added:
‘Biden seems to have made some inroads in deep-red parts of Georgia. He won’t win these areas, but he can carry the state if he is able to get close to a third of the vote there.
‘The other Senate seat will be decided by a special election…Democrat Raphael Warnock has pulled into a clear lead, with 41% support among registered voters, up from 21% in September.’
The battle for second place is very close between two Republicans:
‘[Incumbant Kelly] Loeffler and [Doug] Collins are now battling it out for a spot in the runoff. It may come down to who is seen as the stronger Trump loyalist among Republican voters.’
‘The fight for a spot in the runoff has gotten nastier between the two GOP candidates. And the main beneficiary appears to be the Democrat.’
‘The fight for a spot in the runoff has gotten nastier between the two GOP candidates. And the main beneficiary appears to be the Democrat.’
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 23 to 27, 2020 among 504 Georgia registered voters. The question results are less objective and much more subjective, thus, more difficult to analyze the margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
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