New ABC/WaPost Poll Shows Historic Joe Biden Blue Surge


A brand new ABC News/ Washington Post survey found Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading in the critical swing state of Wisconsin by a staggering 17 percent among likely voters. In the survey, Biden got a full 57 percent of the support, while President Donald Trump got just 40 percent. Joint ABC News/ Washington Post polls have an “A+” rating from the elections forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, which indicates a relatively high degree of confidence on the site’s part in the polls’ results. It’s definitely worth noting — there’s also a real-world precedent for this kind of huge winning margin for the Democratic candidate in Wisconsin. In 2008, Barack Obama and Joe Biden won the state by almost 14 percent.

This time around, Wisconsin seems likely to end up a critical addition to the coalition of whichever candidate wins the presidential election. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by a razor-thin margin of less than 1 percent, and without the state, he would have been left with 294 electoral votes, with just an additional state or two between him and a loss. In Wisconsin polls, Biden leads by an average of 8.9 percent as of Wednesday morning, according to FiveThirtyEight. As of that same point, the site gave Biden a whopping 93 percent chance of winning the state over Trump — indicating that it’s apparently just about in the bag for Dems, with little time left for the Trump campaign to make any sort of substantial turnaround.

In the September edition of this same ABC News/ Washington Post survey, Biden led among likely Wisconsin voters by 6 percent. In the new ABC News/ Washington Post polling, there’s also good news for Democrats outside of Wisconsin. In Michigan, Biden led by 7 percent in the poll results, with 51 percent of the support, compared to just 44 percent for Trump. Michigan is another critical swing state that Trump won by a razor-thin margin in 2016 but could go for the Democrats this year. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden led in Michigan presidentisl polls by an average of an even 8 percent as of Wednesday morning. If all else stayed the same as it was in the 2016 results, then without Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump would be left with just 278 electoral votes. One additional state moving from the Republican to Democratic side could hand Biden a victory.

The fact of the matter is that, with days to go until Election Day, Biden is in a strong position, while Trump is not. Weighed down by his own failures and his endangerment of the American people, Trump continues to struggle to approach Biden in many important polls. Biden’s polling lead, meanwhile, has repeatedly been significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s was at equivalent points back during in the 2016 election cycle.