We are three days before the big day, November 3. Of course, some of the states have been counting their mail-in votes according to individual state law. Others cannot. The odds are favoring former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris winning. Yet, after we were burned by a surprise 2016 Donald Trump win, Democrats are wisely very cautious. After all, there may be a whole huge “alien” spaceship full of voters who hate the polls rising on the horizon just like in the last election.
It really does not take a great deal of national polling error to swing the vote to Trump, according to Project Fivethirtyeight. After all, this is about the Electoral College. Both candidates may fall short of an electoral win on Tuesday.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gives Biden a 90 percent chance of becoming the president of these United States:
‘while President Trump still has a 10 in 100 chance of winning reelection. In the Senate, Democrats have a 78 in 100 chance of taking control, while the party is also a 98 in 100 favorite to keep the House.’
But this year people want to know when will we know the results:
‘To help answer that, FiveThirtyEight published a comprehensive guide to following the returns on election night, including when the polls close in each state and what time we might get semi-final results. So let’s walk through election night hour by hour, using our forecast as a guide to get a better understanding of just how many electoral votes might be accounted for, including how many Trump and Biden can each expect to win. (Spoiler: Unless one of them has a really good night, it’s unlikely that either will hit 270 electoral votes on election night.)’
Trump will likely win West Virginia’s five electoral votes. North Carolina and Ohio and their combined 33 votes could go either way. It is just possible Biden would win them, because “both count most of their votes relatively quickly:”
‘[T”hey could remain unprojected for days as we wait for the last few mail-in ballots to arrive (both states accept mail-in ballots that are received after Election Day as long as they are properly postmarked). On the other hand, if Trump is having a good night, these states could be projected for him, and he could gain a total of 38 electoral votes from states that stop voting at 7:30 p.m.’
‘[A]t 8 p.m. And several states where polls close at that time will probably be projected by ABC News and other media outlets pretty quickly. Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee all have at least a 91 in 100 chance of voting for Trump, so it’s probably safe to say he will be quickly awarded their 43 combined electoral votes.’
Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maine’s 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island with their combined 45 electoral votes will probably be projected for Biden. Fivethirtyeight gives Biden “at least an 89 in 100 chance of winning all those places.”
Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, and Washington, D.C., will also stop voting at 8 p.m. Eastern and are overwhelmingly likely to vote for Biden with 34 electoral votes.
Things get a little less clear where votes are counted more slowly. This could take the situation to an equal vote for both candidates. For 21 electoral votes, only one state will decide the final outcome:
‘First, there’s Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where we are currently forecasting that neither candidate will surpass 50 percent of the vote. And because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, that means we could have an automatic runoff on our hands, where the second-place (or third-place, etc.) votes of those who voted for minor-party candidates come into play. This process would not happen until later in the week, though.’
Then there is that ever-important Pennsylvania:
‘Second, Pennsylvania could also be without final results until well after election night, as they’re not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Tuesday morning, and mail ballots undergo a verification process that means they take longer to count than votes cast in person. Getting a grasp on the vote count in Pennsylvania could be particularly tricky, too, as Trump may win the election-night returns, while Biden is expected to lead the mail vote, which likely won’t be reported right away. All of this means there is a good chance we won’t know who won Pennsylvania until Wednesday at the earliest.’
Let us not forget, there is the ever-shifting Florida vote:
‘[T]he state is different from Maine and Pennsylvania in that we shouldn’t have to wait long to find out. Given how fast Florida counts votes, it would not be a surprise if we get enough results to know who won there shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern. If Biden wins it (and he has a 65 in 100 chance of doing so, according to our forecast), he would add 29 electoral votes to his ledger, for a total of 108 he could win from states whose last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. If, on the other hand, Trump wins Florida, he could net as many as 72 electoral votes this hour.’
At 8:00 pm EST, states worth “exactly 270 electoral votes …will have stopped voting:”
‘However, we still won’t be able to declare an overall winner at this point, as it’s virtually impossible for either Biden or Trump to run the table in these first few rounds. That said, whoever wins Florida — one of the likeliest tipping-point states, according to our forecast — will tell us a lot about which way the race is heading. Case in point: If Trump loses Florida, our forecast believes he has less than a 1 percent chance of recovering to win the overall election.’
Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming with a total of 27 electoral votes, will most likely go to Trump.
Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New York should add 53 electoral votes for Biden. Michigan and Wisconsin are for Biden but slow to count.
Wisconsin will probably take several hours to count all of its mail-in ballots and announce early Wednesday. Michigan probably will not come in until Friday. That gives Biden 26 more electoral votes.
Three states with a total of 50 electoral votes are too close to call Tuesday night. Odds are Biden takes Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, but Trump has a possible one in five chance of winning it.
Texas is closest of all, too close to call. Biden has a slim chance of winning Arizona, but the vote might not come in until Thursday or Friday:
‘So if Biden has a great night and wins them, he could gain 129 electoral votes from states whose polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. If these states go for Trump, though, he could emerge with 77 more electoral votes.’
All graphics via Fivethirtyeight.com.
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order
