In the final round of New York Times/ Siena College polling preceding Election Day 2020, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in four key swing states, including Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Florida, Biden led by 3 percent in the poll results, but in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Biden led by 6 percent, and in Wisconsin, Biden led by a full 11 percent. Biden only hit 50 percent or more of the overall support in Wisconsin, where he had 52 percent of the support compared to just 41 percent for Trump. In Florida, Biden had 47 percent of the support, while Trump had 44 percent, while in both Arizona and Pennsylvania, Biden had 49 percent of the support, and Trump had 43 percent.
Every one of the states covered by the new New York Times/ Siena College polling will likely be a critical addition to the coalition of whichever candidate wins the presidential election. As of early this Sunday, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona are the states that are first, second, and third most likely states to decisively tip the election one way or the other. Donald Trump won all three of these states in 2016, but he definitely might be so successful this time around. Biden’s polling leads have consistently been significantly larger than Hillary Clinton’s leads at equivalent points of the 2016 election cycle. As of this Sunday morning, FiveThirtyEight favors Biden to win in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona, although Florida’s Biden lead is the thinnest.
Polling missteps at a significantly higher rate than those that unfolded during the 2016 cycle would have to precede a 2020 Trump victory, especially one with any kind of dramatic margin over Biden. This time around, polls from across the country are much more decidedly stacked against Trump. As of Sunday morning, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a resounding 90 percent chance of winning the election, and they also report that Biden leads Trump by an average of 8.6 percent in national-level polls. With a national lead that sizable, it’s very difficult, if not impossible, for Trump to win enough individual states in order to secure a win in the electoral college, as he did in 2016.
Tens of millions of voters have cast their ballots before Election Day during this cycle. The number of Texas voters who cast their ballots early during the 2020 cycle surpasses the total number of Texas voters who participated in the 2016 election. Thus, the surge in early voting doesn’t only seem to be because of an increased reliance on early voting because of the Coronavirus pandemic. There also seems to be a high national level of enthusiasm for the possibility of voting Trump out. As of early Sunday, Democrats have cast 45.7 percent of the about 44.8 million early votes that have party affiliation data available.
In the face of his possibly impending loss, Trump has been peddling conspiracy theories about the election.
Trump has insisted that there’s something to be worried about if ballot-counting lags for some time after Election Day, but this claim is ignorant and untrue. States have long taken until well after Election Day to officially finalize their results. Trump’s claims of some kind of looming threat of system-threatening fraud are totally and completely baseless.