A final round of polling from Morning Consult reveals Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading in nine critical states around the country, from Michigan to Georgia. The polling also found Biden and Donald Trump tied in Texas, which could be a major addition to the winning coalition of whoever ends up winning the election. In the Morning Consult polling, Trump had outright leads in Ohio, Indiana, and South Carolina. South Carolina and Indiana lean heavily towards the Republicans, but as of Monday morning — on the day before Election Day — FiveThirtyEight estimates that Ohio is a toss-up.
In the final round of Morning Consult polling, Biden repeatedly crosses the 50 percent threshold in individual states, which is a good sign for the stability of his lead. No number of undecided voters in a given state could swing the state’s results to Trump if Biden is able to secure 50.1 percent of state-wide support. Biden’s biggest leads were in Colorado and Wisconsin; in both states, he led Trump by 13 percent in the final Morning Consult polling. Meanwhile, in Arizona and Georgia, Biden led by just 2 percent, while in North Carolina, Biden’s lead was only 1 percent — but a 1 percent lead is still big enough to win a state for Biden if that’s how the state’s particular final results end up.
Check out a rundown of the final Morning Consult state polls below:
Outside of the Morning Consult state polls, it’s clear that — with hours until Election Day — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is more favored than Donald Trump to win the election. However, even if it’s not probable, a Trump win is still possible. His path to victory likely would not include some kind of landslide win. As in 2016, he’d likely need to win enough individual states in order to deny Biden a majority in the electoral college, even if the Democrats win big in the national popular vote. If Biden is able to secure a leading margin in the national popular vote that is significantly larger than the one Hillary Clinton had in 2016, then there’s a smaller chance of Trump winning enough individual states to win the electoral college.
As of Monday morning, Biden is “clearly favored” to win the election, according to FiveThirtyEight, which gives him a 90 percent chance of clenching a victory. One major caveat could be that final results could be delayed if the election is close and hinges on late-counted votes. Trump has already ranted against late-counted votes, no matter the arbitrariness of cutting off counting of valid ballots on Election Night, which hasn’t generally been done in the past.
The quiet part, screamed: Trump tells reporters that "we're going to go in the night of, as soon as that election is over [in PA], we're going in with our lawyers … if people wanted to get their ballots in, they should have gotten their ballots in long before that." pic.twitter.com/sAMA0Pw6Tg
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 1, 2020