The Republicans have been making no secret about their attempts to throw the next U.S. elections to themselves. They introduced over 360 state laws to hinder Democrats’ access to voting, which is a Constitutional right. Now, we see why.
In the latest first-quarter Gallup Poll, we discovered that there were more Democrats than in the past 10 years. Looking at 49 percent of voting-age Americans, all identity with the Democratic Party or Democratic-leaning Independents.
Only 40 percent of those voters identified as either Republican or Republican-leaning Independents. That nine-point difference was where the poll found the remarkable difference. Eleven percent of the voters were Independents leaning neither left nor right.
In the past, those who identified as Democratic or Democratic-leaning made up only four to six points more than Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents. But there was an interesting shift in the number of Independents, from 38 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 to a dramatic rise of 44 percent in the first quarter of 2021. That type of increase had not been seen since 2013.
Notably, the rise of Independents correlated perfectly to the loss of the Republicans. In 2013 when the government shut itself down over the Affordable Care Act implementation, Republican popularity dropped and Independent popularity rose to 46 percent.
Gallup Editor Jeff Jones noted that, as a matter of course, every time the organization conducts a poll the interviewer asks the interviewee about party identification, according to The USA Today newspaper:
‘It’s something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events.’
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) continues to hold all Republican senators in lockstep to vote against President Joe Biden’s important transitional plans. The president intends to bring America back to a shining example it once was, to become the best innovator, and to nurture American ingenuity. As those economic and individual initiatives unfold, they will hurt the GOP even more.
Jones opined that one factor in the Republicans’ possibility of turning around voter identity may depend upon whether the voters consider President Joe Biden as serving them:
‘A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats.’
‘But if things start to get worse – unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse – then his approval is going to go down. It’s going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.’
The January 6 failed coup impacted voter opinion, too:
‘I think we’re seeing a similar dynamic with Trump leaving office, again with the very low approval rating and (the excitement around) Biden coming into office.’
After nearly a year of sequestration, half a million deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting drop in jobs, Americans were not happy with Trump. He earned the lowest-ever jobs approval rating of any president, a paltry 29 percent.
When the Democrats passed the COVID-19 relief package in March and Biden urged mass vaccinations, people handed the Democrats the accolades.
Jones added that Biden’s and President Barack Obama’s elections drew a rise in the Democratic Party affiliation:
‘That was really the high point that we’ve seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party. Our data on this only goes back to the ’90s, but it’s pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.’
The Mueller Report Adventures: In Bite-Sizes on this Facebook page. These quick, two-minute reads interpret the report in normal English for busy people. Mueller Bite-Sizes uncovers what is essentially a compelling spy mystery. Interestingly enough, Mueller Bite-Sizes can be read in any order.