Midterm Election Prediction Model Has Democrats Feeling Hopeful

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The Republicans continue to bleed seats in a surprising 28-seat loss in the House and three in the Senate, according to a generic poll.  In 2018, they lost 40 in the House. On the other hand, the Democrats lost 62 seats in 2010. These generic losses form the foundation of the GOP’s rash of state changes: gerrymandering, state suppression laws and redistricting, etc. But should the Democrats be concerned?

Analysts, according to generic polls at the Quinnipiac poll,  said that Donald Trump’s “political future is in decline.” The auditors reported:

‘The numbers fly in the face of any predictions that Donald Trump’s political future is in decline. By a substantial majority, Republicans: (1) believe the election was stolen from him, (2) want Trump to run again, and (3), if they can’t vote for Trump, prefer someone who agrees with him.’

Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz first released his 2022 election forecast on Thursday. He credited the UVA Center for Politics for its support. Abramowitz’s model offered the Democrats some, but not a lot of hope for the next election.

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) issued a warning:

‘I’m worried about GOP’s chances in 2022.’

History did not favor this approach, according to CNN. Instead, it shows a loss in at least the House and one or two in the Senate after the party won the White House:

‘A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit (sic) lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House.’

So what is this Abramowitz model? First, it addresses this question in a generic (no names) poll:

‘If the election was today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for House?’

Generally speaking, the generic ballot is useless when it comes to predicting any individual candidate’s race. But it can predict how the country feels on any one day.

In addition, the Abramowitz model uses 222 Democratic House seats out of the 435 in the House plus 14 Senate seats. The number was expanded to include up to 34 in the midterm 2022 elections.

Democrats’ best-case result would be found under a 10-point advantage in the generic ballot in the midterms. The results were two additional House seats win and a three-seat win for the Senate.

The worst scenario (a 10-point edge for Republicans in the generic ballot) would, according to the Abramowitz model, result in a 32-seat loss by Democrats in the House and a 1-seat loss in the Senate.

A Quinnipiac University national poll taken last May gave the Dems a 9-point advantage. But Abramowitz’s model’s worst scenario showing a 10-point Republican edge would result in a 32-seat loss for the House Dems and one seat lost in the Senate.

Abramowitz concluded:

‘Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts … show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot.’

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