2022 Senate Projection Model Shows Democrats Gaining Steam


The election forecasting and analysis organization known as The Cook Political Report has updated its projections for the Senate elections that will take place as part of the upcoming midterms, and there’s some great news for Democrats.

The Senate seats held by Republicans including Ron Johnson (Wisc.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) are now each more likely to flip to Democratic control, according to the Cook election forecast. Johnson, who as a Trump ally is already divisive, is serving in a state where Biden won last November, and he hasn’t even confirmed whether he’ll run for re-election. Meanwhile, Rubio seems likely to face prominent Democratic Senate primary candidate Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) in next year’s general election. Demings is generally popular, and her campaign has already garnered substantial financial support from grassroots donors. She already raised just about half a million more dollars than Rubio did in the second quarter of this year.

Overall, the Cook organization rates Senate races as falling in one of four general categories, including both “toss-up” and “lean,” “likely,” and “solid,” with the latter three groups representing various degrees of confidence that the race will turn out in favor of the political party in control of the seat heading into the election. There’s a “lean Democratic” and “lean Republican” category, with corresponding versions of the other, non-“toss-up” categories for both major political parties. Previously, The Cook Political Report had rated the seat held by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) as “leaning” Republican — but now, it calls it a toss-up. Similarly, the organization had identified the seat occupied by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as a “likely” Republican hold — but now, it characterizes it as merely “leaning” Republican, the last category before toss-up status.

Check out an image of the projections below:

Screenshot-2021-07-24-1.46.57-PM 2022 Senate Projection Model Shows Democrats Gaining Steam Politics Top Stories

The Cook Political Report also moved two Democrat-held Senate seats, in New Hampshire and Nevada, from the “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat” column — but notably, they do not currently rate a single Democrat-held Senate seat on the ballot in 2022 as a toss-up, suggesting that Democrats are in a significantly better position than Senate Republicans heading into the midterm elections. Besides Johnson’s seat, The Cook Political Report currently rates GOP-held seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina as toss-ups.