Swing State 2022 Senate Election Poll Shows Democrats Moving Ahead

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A new poll surveying voters in New Hampshire about an upcoming race for a U.S. Senate seat in the state found incumbent Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan far out ahead of potential Republican challengers for the general election. Against New Hampshire Republican state Senator Chuck Morse, Hassan led with 46 percent of the support, compared to just 38 percent for the Republican. On a similar note, Hassan scored 46 percent of the support against retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who got 40 percent of the support. FiveThirtyEight, which collects polling data from across the political ecosystem, rates Trafalgar Group — the firm that conducted this survey — with an “A-,” indicating a high level of confidence in the numbers.

New Hampshire is rated by the Cook Political Report to merely “lean” towards the Democrats ahead of this Senate election, which is better than certain alternatives but the last category before full-on toss-up status. The state’s Republican Governor Chris Sununu recently announced that he would not be running for Hassan’s Senate seat, delivering a major undercut to Republican hopes of winning the spot in Congress for their side. In the midterms, every Senate seat will count — flipping one seat from the Democrats to the Republicans would mean that Mitch McConnell could once more become Majority Leader, while adding a new Democrat to the chamber could make Democrats less reliant on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of the most overtly conservative Democrats in Congress.

The Cook Political Report rates Republican-held Senate seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as toss-ups for the midterm elections. Biden won two of those states (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) in the 2020 presidential election, and he came much closer in North Carolina than he did in other locales that eventually went for Trump. The same outlet does, however, rate Democrat-held seats in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada as toss-ups — so the 2022 midterm elections seem poised to be closely fought across the country.