Democrats Have 10% Advantage Over GOP In Crucial Midterm Polling

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In the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, a new poll indicates that political momentum heading into the midterm elections later this year is largely on the Democrats’ side.

“78% of Democrats say the court’s decision makes them more likely to vote this fall, 24 points higher than Republicans,” NPR reports, sharing results from a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. In the survey, 48 percent of respondents indicated they were “more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in the fall” versus just 41 percent who went with the GOP, per NPR. In polling from the same source in April, Republicans were in the lead, with 47 percent of the support compared to just 44 percent for Dems. The GOP’s leading margin was inside the margin of error for that earlier poll. This new survey was conducted entirely after the Supreme Court released its decision to overturn Roe. State officials are now allowed to restrict abortion according to their personal ambitions — and the process of imposing harsh, new restrictions quickly started.

Electing and re-electing Democrats would boost the possibility of Congress re-establishing a national right to an abortion after the Supreme Court’s decision. Previously, it was the court’s interpretation of already established law rather than a component of federal law directly addressing abortion that provided the foundation for the federally recognized right to access the procedure. There’s nothing fundamentally stopping Congress from putting the protections for abortion previously established by Roe into federal law — it’s a matter of garnering the level of support among individual members of the House and Senate that would be necessary to get such an initiative passed. Action by voters could drive the addition of more abortion rights-supporting members to Congress: in the new poll, a full 56 percent of overall respondents opposed the court’s choice to do away with Roe. The survey found 45 percent of overall respondents “strongly” against the decision, a portion included in the broader group of those against it.

As could be expected, the poll showed that most Republicans were in favor of the decision to end Roe, but that majority hit just 75 percent… suggesting there’s a significant portion of the GOP base that’s not on the same page. One such pro-abortion rights Republican is Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, who signed an executive order after Roe was overturned that protects people seeking reproductive healthcare in Massachusetts — and the medical personnel providing it — from potential out-of-state proceedings.

Among other ways by which the order specifies the implementation of that protection, Massachusetts authorities won’t be complying with any out-of-state extradition requests connected to obtaining reproductive healthcare in Massachusetts. Although there don’t appear to be specific measures in place providing for proceedings targeting people who obtain reproductive healthcare — including abortions — outside of their home states and those who provide such care, it’s a possibility. There’s already been a proposal along those lines from a Republican member of the Missouri state legislature, and the Roe decision could further embolden extremists on the Right.