Latest Midterm Election Polling Shows Democrats Moving Past GOP

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Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) is 9 percent ahead of Trump endorsement-recipient J.D. Vance in the ongoing race for Ohio’s soon-to-be open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new poll conducted by Center Street PAC.

Ryan had 43 percent of the support, while Vance had 34 percent among overall respondents. There were 23 percent who indicated they were undecided, so there’s clearly a long way left to go in this Senate race, but it also seems clear who has the better starting position: Tim Ryan. Among likely voters, Ryan also led by 9 percent, and the portion of respondents who indicated they were undecided was smaller. Ryan had 49 percent of the support, Vance had 40 percent, and there were 11 percent who indicated they were undecided. Ryan is also viewed significantly more favorably by voters. A full 45 percent indicated they had a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of him. Only 29 percent said the same of Vance.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of polling pitting Ryan against Vance. A USA Today/ Suffolk University poll from well over a month ago had Vance ahead by a small margin. Since that earlier poll, the U.S. Supreme Court opted to overturn Roe v. Wade, and polling indicates the decision is having a significant impact on Democratic ambitions to engage in upcoming elections.

“78% of Democrats say the court’s decision makes them more likely to vote this fall, 24 points higher than Republicans,” NPR reported in late June of a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. The paradigm-shattering impact of the Supreme Court’s decision means the effects on voters’ intentions don’t seem likely to just vanish. Expanding the Democratic majority in the Senate would allow Dems in the chamber to alter filibuster rules to get new protections for abortion rights passed at the federal level. At present, 48 of the Senate’s 50 Democrats have indicated a willingness to make changes to the filibuster rules in certain contexts. Ordinarily, those rules require more than a simple majority to move legislative initiatives forward, making the law-making process difficult — and Republicans obviously haven’t gotten behind abortion protections in significant numbers, so it’s Democrats left to take up the mantle.

Nancy Pelosi has thrown her support behind that method of addressing the Supreme Court’s abortion rights decision: expanding the Democratic majority in the Senate and passing new abortion protections there. Meanwhile, other high-profile U.S. Senate seats up for grabs include spots in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, recent polling suggests Democratic contender and current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is preparing to trounce Mehmet Oz — aka Dr. Oz, Trump’s pick. A recent USA Today Network/Suffolk University poll found Fetterman with 46 percent of the support, while Oz had 37 percent. Like with Ryan, respondents also indicated a more favorable view of Fetterman than Oz. A full 45 percent shared a favorable view of Fetterman, while only 28 percent indicated the same of Oz. Those numbers don’t suggest Oz is somehow sailing to victory, no matter support he’s received from Trump.

Trump’s endorsements haven’t always meant candidates actually won, suggesting they’re not the key factor in victories. In Georgia, Trump very prominently threw his support behind David Perdue in the Republican primary race for the state’s governorship, and Perdue lost by almost 52 percent to Brian Kemp.